China: Big Mouth, Big Cost

China has jumped into Taiwan’s presidetial campaign with both feet, and its ill-considered leap could cost it dearly.

Beijing warned this week that it might use force if Taiwan “indefinitely” delays talks about reunifying with the mainland. Taiwan has made clear there are a lot of things it’s ready to discuss, including expanding trade and communications, but the Taipei government and all three presidential candidates reject the idea of negotiating anything under threat.

Four years ago China tried to interfere in Taiwan’s politics when its naval forces conducted live-fire exercises off the island’s coast. It was a clumsy ploy and it backfired, all but assuring the election of President Lee Teng-hui, who has been consistently defiant of Beijing and, sometimes, an embarrassment to U.S. policy.

Beijing’s latest effort to influence the March 18 Taiwanese election could unintentionally boost the fortunes of Chen Shui-bian, whose past support for Taiwanese independence has drawn particular condemnation from the Chinese government.

China also may have done itself particular harm in the U.S. Congress, where the Clinton administration’s hope of winning early support for granting China permanent trade benefits may now be in jeopardy. The measure, a follow-up to last year’s market-opening agreement between the two countries, would also help clear the way for China’s long-sought entry into the World Trade Organization.

Earlier this month the House overwhelmingly approved a provocative measure to bolster U.S. military ties with Taiwan. The Senate, always more thoughtful in such matters, had been expected to let this needless legislation die quietly. Now China’s threat to use force against Taiwan could change all that.

Beijing must learn again that words, like actions, have consequences. Its bellicose warning to Taiwan shows a misreading of political realities there as well as those in the United States. Its best interests dictate that it broaden its dialogue with both countries. Instead, it has foolishly chosen to narrow its options.