McCain and Bush Need What Each Other Has to Win

After battling to a draw in the first rounds of the Republican presidential primaries, John McCain and George W. Bush now face a common challenge: encroaching on the turf his rival has claimed.

Each man has assembled a politically coherent and consistent coalition that is sustaining him from state to state. Bush’s appeal to core Republicans--in contrast to McCain’s advantage among independents and Democrats--gives the Texas governor an edge, but neither of these blocs now seems large enough to decisively defeat the other any time soon.

Thus, the key question that may settle the nomination in the weeks ahead is which candidate can more successfully hold his base while broadening his appeal to some of those voters propelling his foe. “Now,” said Tony Fabrizio, Republican Bob Dole’s chief strategist in the 1996 presidential race, “the question is who can grow.”

Over the next 19 days, the two men will face that test during coast-to-coast duels in 28 primaries and caucuses, highlighted by contests in California, New York and 10 other states March 7. During that period, the party will select 1,154 delegates, more than the 1,034 needed to win the nomination, according to a count by the Hotline, an electronic political newsletter.

Most analysts still expect the party’s nominee to be settled by the time six Southern primaries are held March 14. But, with the two candidates so evenly matched--and each displaying such resilience--it seems possible the race might not be resolved then.

“I now definitely could see this could drag on to the late primaries, where both candidates with little money are battling it out for the soul of the party,” says John Weaver, McCain’s senior political advisor.

Even after his Michigan and Arizona wins Tuesday, McCain faces the greater challenge. Though he has shown an extraordinary ability to attract independents and Democrats into GOP primaries, even his own top aides believe he will have difficulty seizing the nomination if Bush continues to beat him among partisan Republicans by more than 2 to 1, as he did in South Carolina on Saturday and in Michigan.

Bush Faces Peril on 2 Fronts Over Appeal

Yet if Bush cannot expand his appeal to independents and Democrats, he faces the risk not only of losing key states, but also the allegiance of some Republicans fearful his support would not be broad enough to win a general election.

“McCain’s double win [in Michigan and Arizona] . . . could make a psychological difference in the calculus of Republican voters through the rest of this process,” says Linda DiVall, a GOP pollster neutral in the race. “What they weren’t certain of is whether he was indeed electable and he had the stature and gravitas to compete against Bush and he has demonstrated both of those things.”

Indeed, sources say there is already grumbling inside the Bush fund-raising network that, in his efforts to preempt McCain on the right, the Texan has dangerously narrowed his own appeal.

“Bush sold himself [as] a guy who attracted Democrats, who attracted Hispanics, who attracted new voters, and what is happening?” complained one Bush campaign insider. “He isn’t attracting them.”

McCain already is making more concerted efforts to reach voters who have resisted him. In his victory address Tuesday night, he blended his signature message of campaign finance reform with core Republican promises to “tear up the tax code . . . rebuild our military, strengthen our families [and] protect the unborn.” He continued along these lines as he campaigned Wednesday in Washington state, stressing his credentials as “a Reagan Republican.”

McCain’s challenge will be holding his support among Democrats and independents while amplifying conservative views.

Bush, by contrast, appeared less inclined to reach out than to bolster his base. He did emphasize one of his centrist themes as he campaigned in Los Angeles on Wednesday: his commitment to engaging faith-based charities in social policy, an issue submerged in South Carolina. But during the day, he continued to trumpet his own support among Republicans and denounce the role played by Democrats in McCain’s Michigan victory. Bush said he lost the contest, in which Democrats cast about one-sixth of the votes, because “of people who came into our primary to hijack our election.”

Discussing Bush’s strategic response to Tuesday’s results, one advisor said: “We have choices to make as well, and I don’t think they are made. We have to decide whether to go back to the middle in California or to pound away at this Republican theme.”

Unless and until either man can expand beyond the base he has established, perhaps the single most important variable may be which kinds of voters are allowed to participate in which states.

“Whether or not a given primary is open or closed to non-Republican voters has not been that significant an issue in past nominating battles,” said GOP pollster Whit Ayres. “It now becomes the critical issue.”

States with closed primaries, allowing only registered Republicans to vote, will become more important in the next few weeks, possibly benefiting Bush. According to the Hotline tally, 553 GOP delegates will be selected through March 14 in closed primaries (a figure including California’s 162).

McCain will be the decided underdog in some of these states, such as Mississippi and Florida. But states with closed primaries include Connecticut and New York, two moderate Northeastern states where Bush’s increasingly visible support from his party’s fundamentalist wing will not likely play well.

The number of open primaries remains significant. Through March 14, the Hotline calculated, states that allow Republicans, independents and Democrats to vote in the GOP race will select 490 delegates; states open only to independents and Republicans will select another 111 delegates, for a total of 601.

California Becomes the Wild Card in Race

McCain still faces long odds in several of these contests. His staff acknowledges they may not have the time or resources to seriously contest Bush’s advantages in Ohio and Missouri, which both vote on March 7. And Bush should be able to count on winning in Texas, which votes March 14.

But most of the open primaries are at the top of McCain’s list, including the five New England states that will vote on March 7, Colorado and Utah on March 10 and Tennessee on March 14.

Both campaigns agree that perhaps the single most important race will be in California, the wild card in this deck. California holds a “beauty contest” open primary in which all registered voters may participate, but delegates will be allocated solely on the votes of registered Republicans. With a sizable hunk of California Republicans describing themselves as conservatives, McCain faces a daunting task in the state.

But pollster DiVall said that even in states where only the votes of registered Republicans count, McCain may benefit from the increased interest he seems to have sparked. “People say Bush is the only one who can draw regular Republicans; I don’t buy that,” she said. “There are a lot of moderate Republicans who have sat on the sidelines because they haven’t been excited by the nominees we are fielding.”