Job Growth Continues in January Despite Layoffs in Seasonal Work

While Ventura County lost about 4,300 jobs in January, mostly due to seasonal layoffs in the retail trade and service industries, job growth continued steadily over the previous year and kept unemployment at a low 4.7% for the month.

According to a report released Friday by the state’s Employment Development Department, retail trade firms cut their payrolls by about 2,700 jobs last month, due primarily to the post-holiday slowdown. However, the retail numbers were still up 3.1% from the same period in 1999.

Other areas that saw seasonal losses include the government sector, which lost 1,000 jobs, more than half of those in public education since schools did not resume full employment until later in the month, according to Dee Johnson, labor market analyst for Ventura County.

January is an atypical month because of the holidays and regular layoffs from the retail sector, Johnson said.

Nonagricultural jobs fell by about 5,000, offset by an increase of 700 seasonal farm jobs during the month.

In the year-to-year comparisons, the county’s unemployment rate dropped by more than a full percentage point from January 1999’s 5.8%, with an increase of about 10,000 nonfarm jobs over the year.

The growth rate year-over-year was 4.1%, up significantly from previous months in which growth had been hovering in the 2% range. Part of that rise is simply from re-benchmarking--in which analysts adjust figures for growth during the previous year, economists said.

In the last several months, growth has been understated and the new number is more in line with actual growth, said Mark Schniepp, director of the Center for Regional Economic Research in Santa Barbara.

The numbers are good and low, if perhaps a bit too much so.

“You’re close to the state rate and that’s pretty darn good,” said Jack Kyser, chief economist for the Los Angeles Economic Development Corp. “But we start to fret at this level because it means a shortage in certain types of skills.”

The county’s unemployment rate ranks 18th among California’s 58 counties and places it below the state’s average of 5.3%. Los Angeles County is at 5.8%, Riverside County is at 5% and Orange County has the fourth-lowest unemployment rate in the state at 2.5%.

Job areas with the most growth included computer manufacturing, which was up about 14% from the year before, and electronic equipment manufacturing, up 15%.

Analysts predict that the overall unemployment rate will remain low because business needs are growing faster than the job pool and consumer buying remains high. But they wonder how long it will last.

“We’re watching the financial markets dropping like a rock,” Kyser said. “It will be interesting to see what this does to consumer confidence.”