Signs of Trouble Mount for Russia’s War in Chechnya

Just three months into the second Chechen war, indications are growing that the Russian drive to retake the rebel republic is bogging down.

On Monday, after a series of audacious rebel raids on the Russians’ thinly guarded rear positions, generals reported the highest one-day death toll in the conflict so far: 26 Russian troops in the previous 24 hours.

That tally, which many observers suspect was an undercount, is the latest in a string of worrisome developments for the Russians, who lost their last war against the separatist rebels in 1996 and have described their current campaign as a kind of retribution.

While the Russian command issues relentlessly upbeat reports, signs of trouble seep through the propaganda. Some districts of the capital, Grozny, have been “liberated” by the military more than once. The numbers of rebels the Russians claim to have killed are always high and always round--50, 80 or 100 at once.

On Monday, Russian officials said that rebels blockading the railway station and military command in the town of Argun had themselves been “blockaded” and that the situation was “under control.” But all that appeared to mean was that Russian troops had surrounded the area and the Chechens still controlled the strategic sites.

Moreover, after claiming that a band of rebels had been dispersed outside Shali on Sunday, Russian officials acknowledged Monday that heavy fighting was still underway in the center of the town. They claimed that only three Russian soldiers had died, compared with 150 rebels.

“We have a feeling that what is taking place now in Chechnya is a real slaughter, but the authorities refuse to tell people the truth,” said Valentina D. Melnikova, head of the Soldiers’ Mothers Committee. “But since they don’t have a clue how to win this war, the slaughter will continue indefinitely, and soon enough they will not be able to conceal the truth.”

Russian troops moved into Chechnya on Sept. 30 after weeks of bomb attacks--and met little resistance as they rolled triumphantly through the republic’s northern steppes. But since they launched an offensive against Grozny on Dec. 25, progress has appeared stalled and the death counts have accelerated.

Even according to official reports, heavy fighting continued Monday in at least six towns across the tiny republic, most of them in areas the Russians had previously claimed to control. In addition to Argun, clashes were underway in Shali, Gudermes, Achkhoi-Martan, Urus-Martan and Grozny.

“We now control not only all the flatlands but the main part of the mountainous region,” said Col. Gen. Viktor Kazantsev, Russian commander in the Northern Caucasus. “With time we will take all of Chechnya under control. And you will hear about it and see it.”

The rebels also are guilty of bravado. In a telephone interview with Echo of Moscow radio, Chechen spokesman Movladi Udugov asserted that four towns “are fully under the control of Chechen forces.”

Acting Russian President Vladimir V. Putin, whose own political fortunes have risen with public support for the war, tried Monday to paint the rebel counterattacks as evidence not of Russia’s poor defenses, but of Chechen depravity.

Since they came during a lull in bombing called to observe religious holidays, Putin said, the attacks show that “our opponents in the Northern Caucasus are people without clan, without tribe, without faith--they are simply bandits.”

Observers are drawing other conclusions. They note that while Russia has amassed a huge force in Chechnya--an estimated 100,000 troops--very few of them are combat-ready. Many are conscripts, and others are poorly equipped.

Maj. Gen. Nikolai Bezborodov, a member of the defense committee of the lower house of parliament, estimated that in every regiment of 1,000 troops, only a battalion--about 300 troops--is combat-ready. The result is that combat troops are concentrated on the front lines and the “liberated” areas are left under control of inexperienced conscripts and police.

“It is still too early to say that federal troops in Chechnya have crossed the line where this war is beginning to look like the previous war,” Bezborodov said. “But we can already see some alarming signs. Federal troops are spread out all across Chechnya, so they can’t establish firm control over the entire territory. They can’t secure their rear, so the rebels can draw them into difficult and protracted guerrilla warfare.”

On the other hand, Anatoly I. Utkin, an analyst with the USA-Canada Institute, suggested that the rebels’ weekend raids might be a sign of weakness.

“What we see is the agony of the Chechen rebels, who are trying to use a rare chance for a totally desperate act like capturing an administrative building in Argun,” Utkin said. “These desperate and rather futile acts cannot change the course of the war.”

Should the war grind down into a full stalemate, it would have serious political consequences for Putin.

In part because of his robust leadership of the war effort as prime minister, Putin was named acting president when Boris N. Yeltsin resigned New Year’s Eve. Putin is now considered a sure bet to win an early presidential election set for March 26.

But so far the war has been Putin’s only policy, and he took steps Monday, the first working day after Russia’s New Year’s and Christmas, to expand his policy repertoire.

Putin announced a series of Cabinet shifts, the most important being the elevation of Finance Minister Mikhail M. Kasyanov to first deputy prime minister, a post that in effect makes him acting prime minister. The move appeared designed to demonstrate that Putin considers the economy his top priority.

Putin also demoted two figures who have become lightning rods for criticism.

Railways Minister Nikolai Y. Aksyonenko, who is rumored to have close ties to tycoon Boris A. Berezovsky, lost the title of first deputy prime minister but retained his position as head of the Railways Ministry. Press reports have suggested he has benefited from corrupt rail transport pricing schemes, but no charges have been filed.

The second demotion was of Pavel Borodin, the Kremlin property manager implicated in a Swiss bribery investigation. Putin gave no reason for the dismissal but said he had nominated Borodin to serve as secretary of the nebulous Russia-Belarus Union.

The Cabinet moves followed a shuffle in the military command Friday that prompted some to think Putin was dissatisfied with the course of the war--speculation he has insisted is off target.

Alan Rousso, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center think tank, warned that Putin’s honeymoon with the Russian public might already be ending.

“Putin the tough-talking prime minister was a nice balance to Yeltsin, but Putin the tough-talking acting president frightens a lot of people,” he said. “At this point in time, there is no alternative to Putin . . . but the juggernaut is slowing down.”

Sergei L. Loiko of The Times’ Moscow Bureau contributed to this report.