China Snarls Again at ‘Paper Tiger’

In China’s eyes, America looks like a “paper tiger” once again.

Paper tiger was the pithy phrase coined by Mao Tse-tung to convey the notion that American military power was overestimated. In the decades since the end of the Vietnam War and Mao’s rapprochement with the United States, the phrase fell out of use.

But it’s back. Last week, a senior Chinese official--discussing America’s plans to build a missile-defense system--invoked Mao’s feline figure of speech three times.

“We don’t believe it can work,” Sha Zukang, China’s top disarmament official, said in an interview. “Of course, you can put much money into it, and we know the United States is a very rich country.”

However, Sha went on, speaking in English, “Once you have got the [missile] shield, others will develop a spear strong enough to penetrate it. . . . Using Mao’s words, it’s a paper tiger--fierce enough to frighten away cowards only.”

Sha’s ideas were echoed by other Chinese officials and scholars. China is clearly in the midst of working out the military strategies it should employ to overcome American missile-defense systems, particularly if used to protect Taiwan.

If there were a conflict, China “may have more than 500 missiles” to use against Taiwan and against U.S. military forces in the Western Pacific, observed Chu Shulong of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations.

“There’s no problem for China to increase [its arsenal] by 100 missiles a year, even with today’s budget constraints. These [missiles] are cheap to produce. . . .

“I don’t suggest the Chinese military is going to compete with the U.S. military. But the People’s Liberation Army can concentrate its forces in a small area, like the Taiwan Straits. The United States has to operate globally. You can’t send all 13 of your aircraft carriers to this region.”

China’s show of military bravado may be a pose aimed at dissuading the Clinton administration from deciding later this year to deploy a missile-defense system. Underneath China’s seeming belligerence, there are also some more peaceful currents.

“The mainland does not want to have a war over Taiwan,” said Huang Renwei of Shanghai’s Center for International Studies. He laid out a strategy for dealing with Taiwan through gradual economic integration.

But there is no question that, at the moment, Beijing and Washington seem almost as if they are in different galaxies.

Back in the United States, some scholars and presidential candidates suggest America might get China to accept a U.S. missile-defense system for Asia that would protect Taiwan, if it were solely on American ships and if the United States did not give Taiwan any military technology.

Chinese officials, by contrast, make plain they’re dead set against any U.S. missile-defense system in Asia, even one that would cover only Japan and South Korea.

“My request to the American administration is, ‘Hands off Asia,’ ” said Sha. As for protecting Taiwan with a missile defense system, he warned bluntly, “Don’t expect China to swallow it.”

Back in Washington, the Clinton administration has been hoping to persuade China to revive talks aimed at joining the Missile Technology Control Regime, which limits the export of missile know-how.

But, Sha said, “We are not in the mood to consider it now.” NATO’s war against Yugoslavia last spring, he said, was “an excellent advertisement for the use of missiles.”

For the moment, China’s leaders are preoccupied with stopping American arms transfers to Taiwan. “Every morning, we wake up and worry about it,” admitted Chu, a former Air Force officer.

China is also watching Taiwan’s election, to be held this March, to succeed President Lee Teng-hui. One of the three candidates, Chen Shui-bian, comes from the Democratic Progressive Party, which has for years advocated independence for Taiwan.

China’s strategy is to show no preferences. “Let them have their political show, and we can wait until the dust settles,” observed Su Ge, a Taiwan expert at China’s Foreign Affairs College.

“We don’t think any one [of the Taiwan candidates] will be worse than Lee Teng-hui,” said Chu.

Over the past eight years, Lee has infuriated and befuddled Beijing with a series of initiatives, such as his claim last July that Taiwan has “special state-to-state relations” with China.

Now, China makes clear it can’t wait to bid Lee good riddance.

Tang Shubei, one of China’s top officials for dealing with Taiwan, was asked in an interview what Lee should do after he steps down as president.

Tang represents a government that ordinarily displays no enthusiasm for any religion it can’t control. But for Lee Teng-hui, it appears that China is willing to make an exception.

“If he is going to become a priest,” said Tang, “of course we will have no objection.”