Forbes Is Forging Ahead in Iowa

Pundits are dismissive, polls are unimpressive, but Republican presidential candidate Steve Forbes is undeterred as he treks tirelessly through the snowy drifts of small-town Iowa, appealing to voters as the most electable enemy of abortion and the Internal Revenue Service.

Passing out T-shirts, copies of his book and steaming bowls of chili, Forbes is calling on leaders of conservative grass-roots groups to get voters to next week’s caucuses, where polls show him running second to Texas Gov. George W. Bush.

“If we get this message out,” he told voters who came to see him on a snowy night in Marshalltown, “we will have a nice surprise on Monday night.”

It might be one of the few nice surprises of the campaign.

Although a Los Angeles Times Poll shows Forbes a solid second, trailing Bush 25% to 43%, analysts say he will be challenged to duplicate his second-place finish in contests such as the Feb. 1 New Hampshire primary, where Sen. John McCain of Arizona is campaigning heavily. McCain is not running in Iowa--giving Forbes a short-lived boost, they say.

Arthur Miller, head of the University of Iowa Social Science Institute, said he sees little difference between this year and Forbes’ 1996 campaign, when Forbes was poised to come in behind leader Bob Dole in Iowa--until he was upstaged by conservative firebrand Patrick J. Buchanan, who placed second.

“Second place this time rather than third place last time isn’t much of an improvement, given the money he’s spent,” Miller said, alluding to the $60 million Forbes has spent since 1996, most of it his own money. “You do have to give Forbes credit for having a better organization this time. And he’s used his money wisely this time.”

This time, Miller said, Forbes has built a strong following among Iowa conservatives, who polls say account for a whopping 65% of Republican caucus-goers. Anti-abortion leader Phyllis Schlafly and grass-roots anti-abortion activists are on hand to rally voters for Forbes.

Forbes began turning up the heat on the abortion issue this week while visiting a center that helps pregnant women seek alternatives such as adoption, saying his unyielding anti-abortion stand distinguishes him from Bush.

“I have taken the pledge on selecting a pro-life running mate. He has not chosen to do so,” Forbes said of Bush. “I’ve pledged to preserve the Ronald Reagan pro-life plank. He has refused to do so. You should work to preserve life--not just talk about it.”

Judy Cope, a volunteer, said Forbes’ opposition to abortion “kind of cemented my feeling” that she should cast her vote for Forbes.

“[Bush] just does not stand up on this,” she said. “He beats around the bush.”

On Friday, Forbes took his anti-abortion commitment a step further, saying that he--like Gary Bauer--would discourage his daughter from getting an abortion even if she were raped.

“I would not say publicly what I would do to the perpetrator. It would probably be illegal, but I’d be tempted to do it anyway,” he said.

In recent days, Forbes has crisscrossed Iowa and blanketed it with ads, saying he would defy the pundits with a strong Iowa showing that will win him undecided voters in the February primaries.

“I’m pumped,” he said. “We’re in this for the long haul.”

Aides say Forbes must win at least 21% of the Iowa vote to get traction.

“I think social conservatives are out there asking this question: Who supports my beliefs, and who can win?” said Steve Grubbs, former Iowa GOP chairman and Forbes’ senior Iowa advisor. “We certainly can’t die here. . . . We got 21% in the straw poll. If we go south of that, we’re not making progress.”

Outside of Iowa, progress may be difficult. Forbes remains a distant third in polls in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Forbes has been unable to connect with social conservatives outside of Iowa, and some Republican stalwarts still resent his attacks on Bob Dole in the 1996 campaign for the GOP nomination.

Even so, Forbes forges ahead in Iowa. At some events, such as one rally in Marshalltown this week, he won some converts from the ranks of the undecided. “I’m pro-life. He’s taken a strong stand,” said Mary Miller, a mother of five in Marshalltown.

Her husband, Dave, loves Forbes’ proposal to replace the tax code with a 17% flat tax. “We just keep getting taxed more and more,” he said. “It’s ridiculous.”

In Iowa Falls, Forbes drew cheers when he said the Ten Commandments should be posted in public schools. But not everyone warmed to his message that “we can’t look to Washington” to solve local problems--like the environmentally destructive Iowa hog farms.

“I was kind of disappointed,” said Rich Buchholz, a Vietnam veteran. “It’s a big issue in Iowa. He seemed to leave it to the state government.”

Voters at Forbes rallies were overwhelmingly seniors Friday. Many said they had come after receiving mailed invitations or cold calls from the Forbes campaign.

“It started three weeks ago,” said Meyerson, who is an undecided Republican voter at a rally in Clinton on Friday. “They’ve called twice a day in the last week.”

Forbes’ Iowa audiences have high concentrations of seniors, who pollsters say are highly committed voters--but easily deterred by snowfall.

But Wednesday night, 5 inches of snow did not discourage the many seniors among the 80 people at the veterans’ Eagle Club in Grinnell.

There, Forbes got applause when he alluded to Abraham Lincoln’s Gettysburg address, saying he would bring about a “ ‘new birth of freedom,’ and I believe that means the freedom to be born.”

Forbes also promised to treat the tax code like an old Hollywood movie monster--”We’re going to kill it and drive a stake through its heart so it can never rise again”--and abolish inheritance taxes.

That won over Christie Pifer, the owner of an embroidery design firm.

“If I wanted to pass my business on to my children, they’d have to take out a loan to pay the taxes,” she said. “And I love that he’s so clear on being pro-life.”

Even so, finding converts in states beyond Iowa may not be as easy, analysts say.

“I expect that when he comes in second in Iowa and no better down the line, then that probably is going to be his last attempt in running for president,” Miller said.