Another Turn for Ecuador

The military junta that seized power in Ecuador Friday night was out by Saturday morning, another turn in the tumultuous rule of the politically fractious Andean country. The army retreated in the face of hard diplomacy by Washington and the Organization of American States. But having fixed the constitutional crisis by delivering the reins to Vice President Gustavo Noboa won’t solve Ecuador’s urgent economic and social problems. This is a country led by the military for most of the 20th century, and the generals are not expected to back off.

Ousted President Jamil Mahuad complains that the army plotted to oust him. That’s true, and regrettable. But Mahuad failed to gather political support to revive a collapsing economy and as a result lost the presidency. Noboa will need the support of a range of domestic and international power brokers to maintain power, but the fact that he was supported by two-thirds of the legislative assembly in the overnight change of government was encouraging. With that support he may be able to fend off politicians, unionists, bankers, bureaucrats and Indian leaders hungry for a piece of the political action.

The new president is a respected, honest and charismatic former university president. Now he is faced with reviving an economy almost fully dependent on oil exports. Badly needed reforms also await in the electricity and telecommunications industries. Without them, Ecuador can forget foreign investment.

Noboa, Ecuador’s fifth president in three years, also needs domestic support to deal with the uneasy relationship between the ruling elite and the large Indian population. If the efforts fail, it will be the army, not Noboa, sitting in the presidential palace.