Forbes Puts Social Concerns on Back Burner

Steve Forbes had a simple message to workers for a major defense contractor: Your jobs are safe with me.

After stiffly but patiently viewing models of heat-seeking missiles, Forbes declared that as president he would invest “several tens of billions in extra spending” to upgrade the military. “Defense cannot be done on the cheap. The only cheap hawk is a dead hawk,” he told an appreciative audience at a Lockheed Martin company with 4,000 employees in New Hampshire.

Forbes’ Chamber of Commerce boosterism at this and other events in New Hampshire is a major departure from his stump message in Iowa, where he focused intently on his anti-abortion credentials and hounded the Republican front-runner, George W. Bush, to better define himself on the issue.

Such an approach played well to heavily Christian conservative caucusgoers in Iowa. But in secular, libertarian New Hampshire, where Republican voters rank taxes and health care as their greatest concerns, Forbes has sharply scaled back his social-issue rhetoric.

As the state’s Tuesday primary approaches, he is turning to topics that have greater local appeal, such as tax cuts and pro-business policies. It is a glaring shift for a candidate who touts his devotion to principle, one that raises questions about whether Forbes is any less calculating than the Washington politicians he loves to skewer.

Andrew Smith, a University of New Hampshire political analyst, believes the metamorphosis reflects more on state demographics than Forbes’ integrity.

“It is almost night and day going from Iowa to New Hampshire,” Smith said. “I don’t think that it is pandering. It is just smart politics.”

Whatever the reason, polls show Forbes getting little bounce out of his stronger-than-expected Iowa finish. He remains third in the polls, far behind John McCain, who leads, and Bush. Most ominous, daily tracking polls show little sign of momentum for Forbes--his numbers have been a virtual flat line, remaining in the mid-teens.

Forbes’ largely self-financed campaign ensures him the resources for a long haul. But the political reality is that a poor showing in New Hampshire will raise anew questions about the viability of his candidacy.

Some Forbes aides remain hopeful about the campaign’s chances here. Spokesman Keith Appell says Forbes has “a good shot” at moving ahead of Bush and finishing second in New Hampshire.

But other aides already are looking forward to the first Southern contest, the Feb. 19 primary in South Carolina, where they hope that as many as 50% of the GOP primary voters will be Christian conservatives.

And until then, they’re hoping for a New Hampshire replay of Iowa’s snowy weather.

“It can’t hurt,” said Forbes’ senior political advisor, Paul Young. “Our base is conservatives, and conservatives turn out over moderates in inclement weather.”

The temperature of Forbes’ anti-abortion rhetoric cooled as soon as he arrived in New Hampshire from Iowa on Tuesday morning. He still lashes out at Bush on a daily basis, but his targets have changed. At Wednesday night’s candidate debate, for instance, he sought to eviscerate the Texas governor on taxes and education.

A typical day on the stump in Iowa involved an introduction by anti-abortion crusader Phyllis Schlafly, who would decry the Supreme Court’s Roe vs. Wade decision upholding a woman’s right to an abortion. The ruling, she said, was “responsible for the killing of so many unborn babies.”

That’s a far cry from the tone of the praise heaped on him as he campaigns in New Hampshire. As Forbes shook the hands of voters Thursday at the Puritan Backroom Restaurant in Manchester, Peter D’Andrea told him he favored Forbes’ signature economic plan to replace the existing income tax code with an across-the-board 17% levy.

“Flat tax!” D’Andrea said. “That’s what we want.”