In Tight Race, McCain Hopes Cheers Translate Into Votes

The thunderous applause started even before John McCain got inside. It got louder still as he walked into the high school gym Friday in this snow-blanketed southeastern New Hampshire village.

About 1,100 students, teachers and citizens cheered his arrival at Exeter High School as if he were a hot new rock star. They waved flags, stood on chairs and mobbed him as he made his way to the stage. “We’re having a great and uplifting experience,” McCain told the crowd. “We’ve had wonderful progress.”

The Arizona senator has been getting the same sort of treatment and overflow crowds wherever he goes in these crucial days before Tuesday’s primary. Increasingly, though, the question surrounding the McCain presidential campaign is whether the obvious enthusiasm for him will translate into victory here. And increasingly, the outcome is in doubt.

Polls show the Republican race tightening, setting up a dramatic final weekend of campaigning. Most of the surveys still show McCain ahead, though by decreasing margins; one on Friday reported a virtual dead heat, giving George W. Bush 37% and McCain 36%.

Elsewhere in the country, McCain still faces an uphill climb: Bush holds about a 4-to-1 lead over him in surveys of Republicans nationwide. But New Hampshire is the key to McCain’s master plan: use a victory here as a catapult to win the Feb. 19 South Carolina primary and erode Bush’s aura of invincibility.

On the trail, signs are positive for McCain. Whether his campaign stops begin at 7 a.m. in subfreezing weather or occur during an NFL playoff game, hundreds have been packing into town halls and fire stations to hear him make the case for his candidacy. Volunteers get busy signals when they call his New Hampshire headquarters to sign up. Money has been flowing in at $20,000 to $30,000 a day, campaign officials report.

In an effort to have his popularity peak at the right moment, McCain has made a subtle, calculated shift the last few days, spending less time debating tax cuts and returning to his original focus: his undeniably gripping personal narrative.

In recent public appearances, he has emphasized his experiences in the Vietnam War, a part of his past he normally brings up only in self-deprecating asides. (“I intercepted a surface-to-air missile with my plane,” he often jokes.)

Candidate Tries a New Tack

At the GOP candidate debate earlier this week, McCain drew on the moral capital of the 5 1/2 years he spent as a prisoner of war after his plane was shot down. Responding to rival Alan L. Keyes’ efforts to question his commitment to the anti-abortion cause, McCain lashed back: “Let me tell you something. I’ve seen enough killing in my life. I know how precious human life is. And I don’t need a lecture from you.”

The normally loquacious Keyes stammered a moment before mustering a response.

McCain’s recent advertisements also focus more on reputation than policy. One, designed to get out the vote, features two words floating over an image of him: courage and character. A second offers McCain as the only candidate with the experience to lead the country in foreign affairs.

With his new tack, McCain is trying to make leadership the issue that should be paramount for voters. He is discounting, for instance, Bush’s continued efforts to fight over differences in their competing tax-cut plans, a battle McCain previously joined with relish.

“I think taxes are important, but the real theme of the campaign is not so much taxes as it is who is most qualified to lead and who can inspire the confidence of the voters,” he said.

Said Whit Ayres, a GOP pollster based in Atlanta: “What’s driving John McCain is not his tax plan, it’s not campaign finance reform . . . it’s John McCain. It’s very much personality and character issues that are driving him.”

Character Counts in This Campaign

McCain advisors say they are not worried about the tightening polls. They expected a close race, and their main concern is voter turnout. And in that, they consider their campaign well-positioned.

“This is all about motivating your support to turn out,” said John Weaver, McCain’s campaign director. “Bush would love to take our place. We have passion [among supporters], which they lack.”

The craving for character that McCain is seeking to tap into is evident at the town hall meetings, where he almost always gets at least one sermon from an audience member. Bob Elliot, a 67-year-old retired teacher, spoke for more than a minute during a recent gathering at Salem High School.

“The one thing we really request from our president, and I hope you keep this in mind, is that you never lie to us,” Elliot said. “We’ll support you 100%, no matter what you do, even when you screw up, if you’re honest with us.”

In a trend that could be crucial to his chances on Tuesday, McCain seems to be attracting some support even from voters who tend to back Democrats. A recent Times Poll found, in fact, that respondents who favored Democrat Bill Bradley have far more favorable impressions of McCain than they do of Gore.

Maria Kowalski, 35, has never voted for a Republican for president. But this week, she trooped through the snow with her husband and three kids to listen to McCain speak in the old brick gym in Nashua High School.

After listening intently for 45 minutes, the Avon saleswoman declared herself a McCain supporter.

His opposition to abortion made no difference. Neither did his involvement in the “Keating Five” savings and loan scandal in Congress--troubles that McCain himself has discussed frequently.

“I like the way he came off, as personable, honest,” she said. “It was his charisma that came through.”

Times political writer Ronald Brownstein contributed to this story.