Vying for Every Latino

Quick: What’s the fastest-growing segment of the U.S. electorate? Soccer moms? Silver-haired senior women? Latinos? Gen-Xers? Pick one. Is that your final answer?

The correct answer is, of course, Latinos. Currently, there are 32 million in the United States, and 13% of California’s population is Latino. That’s one reason why both Texas Gov. George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore visited San Diego to address the annual convention of the National Council of La Raza last week.

For Bush, targeting the Latino community is a serious pursuit--and an uphill battle. In 1996, according to exit-polling data, President Bill Clinton clobbered Bob Dole, 72%-21%, among Latinos. Current national polls shows Gore leading Bush by roughly 16% to 20% among them, a substantial improvement for the presumptive GOP nominee.

The big problem for Bush has been Proposition 187, the 1994 GOP-sponsored initiative that would have ended state services, including education, for undocumented immigrants. This is a perceptual negative that Bush must counter in his appeal to Latinos. As he made clear in San Diego, Bush opposes the intent of Proposition 187; every child, he emphasizes, should be educated, regardless of their parent’s immigration status.

The Bush campaign would be thrilled to hold Gore to less than 65% among Latinos, but its real target is seizing a significant share of the Latino vote in the electoral-rich states of California, Texas and Florida.

In 1996, Dole received a scant 17% of the Latino vote in Texas; 22% in California; and 46% in Florida. This year, Bush should garner a majority of Latino votes in his home state of Texas. With the help of his brother, Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, he should also manage to obtain a majority in that state. That leaves California, with its 54 electoral votes, as the big enchilada.

If Bush were to win more than 30% of the vote in California, it would be a huge improvement over Dole in 1996 and Republican Dan Lungren’s 18% in the 1998 gubernatorial race against Gray Davis. Does Bush have a realistic chance of doing this?

His personality and campaign style are huge pluses. Bush has been to California six times since he clinched the GOP nomination and has campaigned in Latino communities on every visit. He is at ease communicating in Spanish and obviously enjoys being able to demonstrate his flair.

Bush has been clear in the agenda he presents to the Latino community, as evident in his speech to the National Conference of La Raza. He spoke about specific issues: expanding the North American Free Trade Agreement and entrepreneurial opportunities, educating children, resolving the thorny issue of immigration and pledging $500 million to cut the average time needed to process an immigration application, from the current three to five years, to six months. One way he plans to accomplish this is by offering performance incentives to employees.

Take note of Bush’s language in outlining his goal: “My administration will reform the INS [Immigration and Naturalization Service] and make it worthy of a nation of immigrants. We need to bring to the INS a new standard of service and culture of respect.” He has adopted the business world’s standard of customer service and made sure that it included an attitude of courtesy.

Bush has one other weapon yet to be fully unleashed: His nephew, George P. Bush, son of Jeb and Columba Bush, is a hip, articulate Gen-Xer. He is a dynamo on the campaign trail and comes across even better on the TV screen. Check out the Bush Web site to see the commercials George P. Bush has starred in. The most effective is an MTV-type spot featuring quick cuts of George P, in black and white, speaking English and Spanish, in which he articulates the reasons to support his uncle with a direct appeal to the Latino community:

“Because he knows we all are the new face of America. Because he wants no child to be left behind. Because it’s time for a change. Because he understands our culture. Porque sabe que somos el futuro. Porque el sueno Americano es para todos. Porque el sera un gran presidente. This is the reason--esta es el razon--why I’ll vote for him. How about you? Y tu?”

Make no mistake: George W. Bush is signaling his intent to be a serious presence in the Latino community and make Gore fight for every vote. Anyone who knows Bush’s competitive spirit understands he will work hard to attain his goal. *