Bush Pick an Asset Only if They Win

In selecting Dick Cheney as his running mate Tuesday, George W. Bush paradoxically took the big risk of picking a low-risk partner.

Leading in the polls, Bush has chosen a vice presidential candidate who could help him enormously in the White House--but may not help him much in getting there, analysts in both parties believe.

Across the Republican Party Tuesday, officials praised Cheney’s character, steadiness and experience in jobs from White House chief of staff to Defense secretary. “Frankly, when you look at it from the perspective of the positions he’s held, there are very few Americans who are more qualified” to step in as president if needed, said Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), Bush’s principal rival for the GOP nomination.

But many party operatives worried that Bush may have squandered a chance to strengthen his electoral position by selecting a running mate with few obvious political assets. Cheney’s home state of Wyoming is reliably Republican. And his staunchly conservative voting record as a House member from 1979-89 may appeal much more to core Republicans--who already support Bush at historically high levels--than independent voters.

“It’s clearly George W. sending a message about governing and what kind of an administration he would have,” says GOP consultant John Weaver, the political director for McCain’s campaign. “This is not a political choice. Polling wouldn’t have led you to this choice; analyzing political needs wouldn’t bring you to this choice.”

The political benefits Cheney offers are more intangible: a sense of gravitas that could help dispel questions about whether Bush is ready for the presidency, particularly in foreign policy, and a link to a less confrontational era in Washington that dovetails with the Texas governor’s promises to set a more civil tone in the capital.

But the question some uneasy Republicans asked themselves Tuesday is whether, if the race tightens, Bush may wish he chose a nominee with more immediate political impact.

“Hopefully, we don’t look back in late October and say this was a political moment lost,” said one GOP strategist with experience in national campaigns.

Choice Points to Bush’s Confidence

In both parties, strategists saw the selection of the low-key but well-regarded Cheney as a measure of Bush’s confidence about his lead in the race.

“I think it’s a complete discounting of the political importance of the vice presidential nominee,” says Marshall Wittmann, director of congressional relations at the conservative Heritage Foundation. “It seems that Austin is so supremely confident that they don’t think they need to use the vice presidential pick” in that way.

In his choice, Bush passed over names that potentially could have had more influence on the election, such as McCain or Pennsylvania Gov. Thomas J. Ridge. McCain offered virtually unparalleled appeal to independents and Ridge is a popular figure in a key swing state.

But these two contenders carried risks--Ridge’s support of abortion rights would have alienated some conservatives, while McCain’s unpredictable independence made him an unlikely fit for Bush.

Cheney, with a conservative voting record but good personal relations with moderates, stirs virtually no controversy inside the party.

Matthew Dowd, the Bush campaign’s director of polling, argued that those Republicans clamoring for a running mate with more obvious political electricity overestimate the pick’s potential impact on the race. “In the end, the best decision is going to be your governing one because most of the political reasons why people have picked vice presidents over the past 20 years haven’t panned out the way they wanted it to,” Dowd said.

Dowd cited the Democratic ticket’s failure to carry Texas in 1988 after Michael S. Dukakis picked the state’s popular senator, Lloyd Bensten, as his running mate.

Democrats mostly breathed a sign of relief at the Cheney selection, believing that Bush had failed to strengthen his position and even may have exposed new vulnerabilities. Indeed, many Democrats--like at least a few Republicans--saw the selection as a sign that Bush may be overconfident.

“I think they take the poll numbers too seriously,” said Democratic pollster Stanley B. Greenberg. “I don’t see any gain, and maybe even a little loss.”

Senior Democrats believe the Cheney pick may strengthen three of the main arguments they hope will eventually catapult their presumptive presidential nominee, Al Gore, past Bush.

First, Gore advisors believe Cheney’s conservative voting record in Congress will buttress their contention that Bush himself is less moderate than he appears.

“Cheney has a lot of votes that . . . reinforces a sense that these guys are moderate in image but far-right in policy and practices,” one top Gore aide said.

On Tuesday, the Democratic National Committee and allied liberal groups immediately targeted Cheney’s record in a series of news briefings and background papers. As a House member, he voted against virtually all gun control initiatives, staunchly opposed federal funding for abortions and took a dim view of most environmental statutes.

Second, Democrats believe Cheney’s ties to the oil industry--he’s stepping down as chief executive officer and chairman of Halliburton Co., an oil engineering and construction company--will underscore Bush’s own links to the business. Signaling what’s likely to be a steady refrain, Gore campaign spokesman Chris Lehane quickly derided Bush and Cheney as “the big-oil ticket.”

Gore himself Tuesday wasted no time in declaring: “I will choose a running mate . . . who will stand up for the people . . . willing to take on the big polluters, the big drug companies, the HMOs and big oil.”

Subtle Questions About Independence

Finally, Democrats believe Bush’s selection of the former Defense secretary in his father’s Cabinet will subtly revive questions about the younger Bush’s independence and whether he has ascended to the nomination on the basis of his own strengths or his family’s name.

Though some GOP consultants fear Democrats will find some resonance for those arguments, the Bush campaign and its allies see little downside in the running-mate choice.

Cheney’s supporters also believe he will help Bush with swing voters by answering the biggest concern many of them are likely to have about the Texas governor: whether he’s ready for the presidency.

“It says to the country, Bush will pick the best people and he is not afraid to choose somebody who is a star in his own right, but he’s also discerning enough to pick a star who will be a great partner,” said former Republican National Committee Chairman Haley Barbour.

Many Republicans believe the selection sends signals about the kind of government Bush would assemble if he wins. Almost all took the decision as a sign that Bush shares his father’s priority on loyalty, discretion and personal compatibility.

Unlike McCain, or even a choice such as Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee, Cheney won’t compete with Bush for the limelight. At 59, with three heart attacks in his past, Cheney also is unlikely to harbor White House ambitions of his own.

More ambiguous is the message the selection offers about the way Bush approaches big decisions. As a candidate, he has taken some clear risks in proposing bold policies, such as partial privatization of Social Security and a sweeping tax cut.

Pete Wehner, policy director at the conservative think tank Empower America, believes the choice shows that the younger Bush is likely to steer a middle course between the minimalist policy ambitions of his father and the to-the-barricades ethos of both Reagan’s first term and the newly elected Republican Congress in 1995.

“It means he is probably going to have an administration . . . run by adults,” Wehner says. “It’s not going to be as revolutionary as Reagan, especially in tone, but it’s going to be much more conservative than Ford or [Bush’s] father.”

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Times staff writers Michael Finnegan, Sunny Kaplan and Jacqueline Newmyer contributed to this story.

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Bush’s Bench

Many were considered, but only one was chosen. A few men who reportedly came close to getting Dick Cheney’s job:

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JOHN C. DANFORTH

Fmr. Missouri senator Missouri

Like Cheney, the attorney and ordained minister was in Congress during a less-partisan era. Danforth’s record is less conservative than Cheney’s.

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CHARLES HAGEL

Nebraska senator

Like the man Bush defeated--John McCain--the freshman senator is a Vietnam veteran and supports campaign finance reforms.

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FRANK KEATING

Oklahoma governor

A Catholic who opposes abortion rights, Keating is an attractive and smart pol but has an undistinguished record as governor.

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JOHN McCAIN

Arizona senator

Many Republicans said McCain was the VP the Democrats feared most, but the GOP runner-up insisted he didn’t want the job. Bush called him Tuesday to say Cheney was on board.

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GEORGE PATAKI

New York governor

A Catholic supportive of abortion rights, Pataki could have helped push his Democratic-leaning state toward Bush. He also got a call from Austin on Tuesday.

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THOMAS J. RIDGE

Pennsylvania governor

Once the front-runner, and from a key state, the Vietnam veteran is another pro-choice Catholic. Ridge said he pulled out to be with his family and run his state.

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* RELATED COVERAGE: A10-11