Bush’s Critical Big Choice

Things are going well for Texas Gov. George W. Bush. He continues to increase his lead over Vice President Al Gore, forcing Gore into yet another strategic posture: the positive Gore. In our most recent polling, over Memorial Day weekend, Bush consolidated his partisan base, led among men by 20% and was dead-even among women. So he has the luxury of looking far afield in his choice for vice president and does not have to worry about a particular region, demographic or his partisan base.

This choice will be critical, because it will be Bush’s first big decision that the general electorate can evaluate. It will most assuredly be compared with his father’s selection of J. Danforth Quayle.

What factors might be weighed in selecting a vice president? Here are some that really count:

* Do not create any harm for yourself.

* Do not offend base constituencies. This might compel Bush to create a solid antiabortion ticket, as opposed to naming a pro-choice running mate.

* Appeal to centrist voters--independents, moderates, women, nonpartisan baby boomers and pivotal seniors--who now prefer Bush.

* Go into the heart of Bill Clinton-Gore territory. There is a small number of states that are true toss-ups: Illinois (22 electoral votes), Michigan (18), Wisconsin (11), Missouri (11), Ohio (21), Kentucky (8), Tennessee (11), Pennsylvania (23), Connecticut (8) and New Jersey (15). What’s interesting about these states is that they represent 148 of the 270 electoral votes necessary to win, and Clinton-Gore took all of them in both 1992 and 1996.

* If you are planning an aggressive policy agenda in the first 100 days of the next Congress, you want a vice president who can help propel your vision into legislation that will move through a still narrowly divided Congress. Therefore, your running mate needs to command bipartisan respect on the Hill, exude integrity and be an absolute loyalist.

Examining the above factors, and keeping in mind those individuals--Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Colin L. Powell-- who have unequivocally said “no,” classifications of individuals emerge.

The first category is antiabortion Catholics. The list includes Sen. Connie Mack of Florida, Gov. Frank Keating of Oklahoma, Sen. George V. Voinovich of Ohio and Sen. Mike DeWine of Ohio, who was also a prominent McCain supporter.

Bush could also make a bold statement by picking a pro-choice candidate from a list of his fellow governors: Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania, George E. Pataki of New York, Christine Todd Whitman of New Jersey or John G. Rowland of Connecticut. But this might violate the first two rules. Ridge, Pataki and Rowland are Catholics, and such a move could alienate the swing Catholic bloc in the critical states.

A third classification would include a big-state power from the toss-up states: Gov. Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin, Gov. John Engler of Michigan, Ridge, Whitman, Rep. John R. Kasich of Ohio and Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee, another McCain supporter.

A name that absolutely has to be included on any list is that of Elizabeth H. Dole, who has been on the national campaign trail, knows how government works given her tenure as secretary of labor and transportation and possesses unrivaled star power in the political arena, which also translates into fund-raising prowess.

Finally, there are GOP senior statesman: Sen. Richard G. Lugar of Indiana, and Richard B. Cheney, former White House chief of staff and congressman.

One other individual should be mentioned: former Sen. John Danforth, an antiabortion minister liked by the pro-choice bloc, a staunch defender of Clarence Thomas during his Supreme Court nomination fight and a compassionate conservative as demonstrated by his efforts to alleviate world hunger and push for civil rights. Danforth has impeccable credentials, and the vice-president buzz is already circulating about him.

Who will it be? Only one person knows, and Bush isn’t talking. *