Garcetti Saving Resources for General Election

Dist. Atty. Gil Garcetti appears resigned to the likelihood that he will be forced into a runoff with one of his two challengers in the March 7 primary and is saving the bulk of his substantial campaign war chest for November’s general election.

Garcetti’s campaign has decided not to run any television or radio advertising in the primary, even though he could win a third term outright by receiving more than 50% of the votes Tuesday. His political advisor, Bill Carrick, said Thursday that the campaign had decided any ads would get lost in the clutter of presidential advertising--and that Garcetti wants to be ready for a runoff.

“We’re hopeful that won’t be the case, but that’s possible,” he said. Recent polls, he added, have demonstrated that “in a three-way race, you always run the possibility that you’re going to get into a runoff.”

Garcetti’s competitors, who are running broadcast ads despite having less money than the incumbent, put it more bluntly.

“They know they’re in a runoff,” said John Shallman, a political consultant to challenger Steve Cooley. He said Cooley conducted polls last fall that indicated that Garcetti was all but certain to be forced into a runoff.

Barry Groveman, Garcetti’s other challenger, said he felt confident there would be a runoff. “Obviously, if he thought he could win this thing, he’d be spending every last dollar he has,” Groveman said.

Garcetti, who nearly lost to Deputy Dist. Atty. John Lynch four years ago, has conducted a low-key campaign so far this year, focusing on fund-raising and delivering speeches to civic groups. It’s the sort of tedious work that candidates do to lay the groundwork for a modern media campaign. Usually, however, they shift gears before the election and launch whatever commercials they can afford.

Instead, Garcetti has saved almost all his money, spending a relatively small portion of it on paid “slates”--lists of recommended candidates that are mailed to voters and are mostly commercial ploys involving no real party or civic organization.

He has refused to participate in several debates, leaving Cooley and Groveman to lob attacks at empty chairs. He didn’t even spend the relatively modest sum required to post an official statement on the sample ballot, an opportunity few candidates pass up.

“It’s normally an unusual strategy,” Republican political strategist Arnold Steinberg said of Garcetti’s restrained approach. He said it would make sense only if Garcetti knew he had no chance of staying out of a runoff.

Like Garcetti, Groveman and Cooley are buying positions on slates. However, both challengers are also spending all they can on broadcast media. Groveman, a private lawyer who has raised nearly $600,000 in campaign contributions, has been running television commercials accusing Garcetti of going easy on school violence and boasting of his own role in investigating the Belmont environmental scandal.

Cooley, one of Garcetti’s top deputies, has raised somewhat less--in the neighborhood of $400,000--and has been running radio ads touting his experience and endorsements. He also is sending out mailings that attempt to tie Garcetti to the Rampart police scandal.

Garcetti’s polls have shown the two challengers in a dead heat, Carrick said. Cooley might be in a slightly stronger position, he said, because of his endorsements and his title--head deputy district attorney. As the lone Republican in the nonpartisan race, Cooley could also benefit from a surge of interest in the Republican presidential primary, which is expected to draw a higher percentage of GOP voters than usual. But that assumes that voters know he’s a Republican, and most probably don’t.

The bottom line, Carrick said: “It’s just a total crapshoot.”

Garcetti has raised a little more than $1 million, and will spend about $250,000 in the primary, Carrick said. Groveman and Cooley are expected to spend most or all of their money by Tuesday, meaning they would start any runoff campaign far behind.

Both challengers, however, say they would have little trouble raising money if they get into a runoff. “There will be incredible momentum on that,” Groveman said.

Numerous political observers have said Garcetti could be in deep trouble if he is forced into a runoff.

“I think that if the candidate against him, whoever it is in November, runs a more serious effort than now, Garcetti would be defeated,” Steinberg said.

Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a political analyst at Claremont Graduate University, said she can understand why Garcetti has avoided campaigning so far. “Even if it is your own message, it only reminds people that there are questions involving--yet again--the performance of the D.A. on certain issues,” she said.

Still, she wondered whether Garcetti wasn’t making a mistake. Even Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a popular incumbent with no real opposition in the Democratic primary, has begun advertising for the November election, Jeffe noted.

Garcetti was a popular figure when he was elected--virtually by acclaim--eight years ago after incumbent Ira Reiner dropped out of the race. But losses in a series of high-profile cases, capped by the O.J. Simpson murder trial, nearly cost him his job four years ago, even after he vastly outspent the little-known Lynch.

Garcetti has had a somewhat easier time the past four years. His office won the Ennis Cosby murder case and launched some successful anti-crime initiatives--including a highly successful welfare fraud effort led by Cooley. The crime rate declined sharply, as it has nationwide. Garcetti won plaudits for his fight against domestic violence.

But in the past year, scandals surrounding the Belmont school site and the Rampart police division have threatened to unravel any progress Garcetti has made. Although his office wasn’t responsible for the scandals, Garcetti has been criticized by his challengers for his failure to uncover them and for what they consider to be a passive response in the months since they were revealed.