Pressure’s on for Israel-Syria Talks

Israeli-Palestinian peace talks have resumed near Washington, and the United States hopes that Israel-Syria negotiations won’t be far behind. President Clinton plans to meet in Geneva on Sunday with Syria’s President Hafez Assad in what seems an almost certain prelude to restarting the U.S.-sponsored talks between Israel and Syria that were suspended in January.

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has confirmed that the two sides have kept up contacts through intermediaries and may have been able to narrow their differences significantly. It seems very unlikely that the increasingly infirm Assad would make the trip to Geneva unless he thought the odds favored progress.

The essential provisions of a deal are evident. Syria would regain control over the Golan Heights, which it lost to Israel in the 1967 war. Israel would get the security arrangements it needs if it withdraws its army from the strategic plateau, and it would expect full diplomatic relations and other normal ties. Until now, Syria has insisted that the details of a peace agreement had to await Israel’s prior agreement to leave the Golan.

As in all such negotiations, the biggest problem is often which side is prepared to make the first concession. The usual experience, going back to Henry Kissinger’s “shuttle diplomacy” following the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, is that neither side wants to go first for fear of looking weak and opening itself to demands for further retreats. This is where creative intermediation isn’t just helpful but vital.

Time isn’t an ally of the negotiations. Prime Minister Ehud Barak risks losing his mandate if he can’t deliver a deal, or at least significant progress toward one, fairly quickly. Assad, a dictator, needn’t worry greatly about public opinion. But he is conscious of his own mortality and of Syria’s desperate need to revive an economy that has been mismanaged and drained by huge military expenditures in the confrontation with Israel. Both leaders have strong personal incentives to succeed. Before long, we’ll know how much that counts.