As Romania Struggles, President’s Reelection Chances Shrink

In the slow dance of post-Cold War NATO enlargement, Romania was one of the former Soviet bloc countries that most strongly desired to waltz right in. So when it was rejected for last year’s first wave of expansion, many Romanians felt spurned.

Then, right after Romania’s disappointment of watching other former Communist states join the alliance first, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization launched airstrikes on Yugoslavia--and Romania was supposed to applaud.

President Emil Constantinescu did. But the Romanian public did not.

The reverberations still echo today, with Constantinescu, once Romania’s strongest advocate of democracy and close relations with the West, now facing probable ouster partly because of his firm backing for NATO.

“The people’s reaction was, ‘Why should we support the ones who don’t want us?’ ” Eugen Vasiliu, a senator from the ruling coalition, said in explaining Constantinescu’s loss of popularity. “That was the moment of his fall. The people think with their heart rather than their mind.”

Constantinescu’s strong pro-NATO stance boosted his nation’s standing with the West and helped launch talks on Romania joining the European Union. But public revulsion at NATO’s bombing of Yugoslavia, coming on top of widespread anger over falling standards of living, has undercut Constantinescu’s domestic support so severely that, according to polls and analysts, he is likely to lose an election later this year.

Opposition leader and former President Ion Iliescu--a onetime associate of Communist leader Nicolae Ceausescu who broke with the dictator before his overthrow--has drawn about 45% support in recent polls, compared with 18% to 20% for the president.

Many here believe that this means a likely return to power by Iliescu, who emerged from the bloody 1989 revolution to lead Romania until his defeat by Constantinescu in 1996. Some fear that all this could mark a major setback for the advance of democracy and free-market economics in the region.

“For six years [after the overthrow of communism], Romanians waited for a miracle, and when Constantinescu came, we thought it was the miracle. But no miracle happened,” said Ion Cristoiu, director of the daily Azi newspaper.

Bulgaria and Slovakia, two other former Soviet bloc states that have been invited into the “second tier” of European Union candidates along with Romania, are similarly struggling in a difficult transition to democracy and free markets a decade after communism’s fall.

The three countries now have multi-party political systems and feisty media and are moving toward Western-style economies. But their economic strength and the maturity of their democratic institutions lag far behind those of Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic, which as the three most successful former Soviet bloc states are top applicants for EU membership.

Here in Romania, the high hopes for economic growth and acceptance into the mainstream of Europe after the election of Constantinescu have been brutally dashed.

Romanian newspapers played a key role in Constantinescu’s rise to power. A former university dean who won the presidency on promises of greater capitalism, he was a hero to the country’s most fervent supporters of democracy. That included independent media, which saw Iliescu as lukewarm at best on Western-style political and economic reforms.

Leading journalists, deeply disillusioned, also are battling a proposed government-backed state secrets law that they fear could be wielded against press freedoms. Adding to the pressures on independent media are the frequent use of criminal libel suits against reporters who publish allegations of wrongdoing, and proposed laws that would let the government decide who can be a journalist.

Leader’s Ratings Drop as Economy Shrinks

The worst blows to Constantinescu’s popularity have come from Romania’s shrinking economy, which contracted 6.9% in 1997, an additional 5.4% in 1998 and 3.2% more last year. As living standards collapse, government incompetence, corruption and badly managed reforms get the blame.

“The politicians are very angry that the press criticizes them so strongly, and they are trying to find a solution to stop it,” said Dumitru Tinu, president of the Romanian Press Club. “Their image is very bad in all polls. . . . They think it’s because of the criticism [by] the press.”

Corruption and abuse of power are serious problems in virtually all former Soviet bloc states. Slovakia, formed in the 1993 breakup of Czechoslovakia, had its hopes for joining the European mainstream hit especially hard by these issues, although the most diplomatically damaging allegations there have revolved around former Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar.

Until the authoritarian Meciar lost power two years ago, NATO and the European Union refused to even consider granting membership to Slovakia.

The government of Prime Minister Mikulas Dzurinda has generally won high diplomatic marks from the European Union for its commitment to democracy. But Meciar remains very much in the picture as leader of Slovakia’s opposition.

In a move widely seen as aimed at blocking Meciar’s possible return to power, the government sent masked commandos storming into his home last month to arrest him on charges of fraud and abuse of power during his six years as prime minister. He was released in a few hours after paying a $250 fine for failing to answer a summons to testify in the 1995 kidnapping of former President Michal Kovac’s son.

Authorities said Meciar was arrested for allegedly paying illegal bonuses worth $314,000 to his Cabinet ministers while in office. But many commentators said the main purpose of the raid was to pursue a suspected link between Meciar and the kidnapping, which is widely believed in Slovakia to have been an effort by the government’s intelligence service to embarrass Kovac, a Meciar rival.

It is not yet clear whether Meciar’s arrest has hurt him politically or if it might rebound in his favor by arousing resentment against the strong-arm tactics used. But such goings-on hurt Slovakia’s efforts to be seen as a normal European democracy.

Slovakia, Bulgaria Also Facing Woes

Slovakia is also facing economic hardships. A fiscal austerity program has triggered soaring unemployment, now about 20%. The economy has slowed from a strong pace in the Meciar years to 4.4% growth in 1998 and 1.9% in 1999. Progress remains slow in the privatization of state industry.

Bulgaria, meanwhile, recorded 2.5% growth last year after an increase of 3.5% in 1998, marking recovery from a severe 7% decline in 1997. Led by President Petar Stoyanov, Bulgaria’s government also backed NATO’s bombing campaign, despite strong public misgivings.

Bulgaria made some progress in privatization in 1999, selling off large stakes in several industries. But controversy erupted last month over allegations that Prime Minister Ivan Kostov had covered up intelligence reports about corruption among senior officials. He rejected the opposition’s demand that he quit.

The Romanian government hurt itself politically under Constantinescu by trying to push forward market-oriented reforms, including privatization of state industries, yet failing to be firm enough against opposition from groups such as coal miners, many analysts say.

“The reform . . . began slowly and with a lot of fear,” said Vasiliu, the senator.

A victory by Iliescu in November “will be an unbearably big problem” for Romania, predicted Cornel Nistorescu, editor in chief of Evenimentul Zilei, a leading Romanian newspaper. “He represents the period when in Romania there didn’t exist the will for strong reform. It was a period of confusion and hesitation.”

Many officials within the European Union and NATO view Iliescu primarily “as a former Communist,” Nistorescu added. “At the first wrong move, Romania will be put on standby again.”

The Azi newspaper’s Cristoiu, however, argued that the impact of an Iliescu victory would not be so severe and that the center-right parties now holding power might reform themselves in a healthy way if they are forced into opposition for a few years.

“I think this thesis that Iliescu’s return to power would mean something like isolating Romania from the European Union and NATO is something the [ruling] power is using to help them in the elections,” Cristoiu said. “Whoever wins the election, Romania’s policy will continue to be pro-Western.”