While NIMBYs Get Their Revenge, Post Office Delivers More Votes

The nation has been preoccupied with the outcome of the presidential race, but the recent election also reveals some noteworthy local, state and national trends. Here’s a sampling:

Revenge of the NIMBYs: No-growth ballot initiatives follow prosperity like Jenny Craig follows Thanksgiving. Brea’s Measure N (hillside development, which failed) San Clemente’s Measure U (building permit moratorium, failed), and Newport Beach’s Measures S (traffic and density, passed) and T (S’s antidote, failed) were among 55 growth-related local initiatives statewide.

Get out the vote: Two-thirds of Orange County voters polled before the election had never heard of Measures G and H (tobacco settlement money), the only countywide ballot initiatives. One assumes these voters had that same level of interest in statewide ballot measures and even in candidates for office. Who is encouraging these people to vote, and why?

Patriotic couch potatoes: On the other hand, if higher voter turnout engenders awareness of issues and candidates, we’re on the right track. In Oregon, there were no polling stations. All voting there is by mail and the turnout was 84%. One in four votes cast in Orange County this year was by absentee ballot. This probably is a good trend, but we’ll miss the Norman Rockwell-esque feeling of civic involvement that came with walking into a voting booth in an elementary school or a neighbor’s garage.

Honey, I shrunk the GOP: In Orange County, Republicans no longer constitute a majority of registered voters, at 49.2%. Democrats here are even worse off at 32.2%. Democrats, however, are just one seat shy of a super-majority of two-thirds representation in the state Senate and four seats shy in the Assembly. Historically, Orange County has provided the margins of victory for Republicans in the two houses and for Republicans seeking statewide office. But the county can’t do it all by itself. If the GOP stronghold crumbles here, it may be years before we see another Republican Legislature or state constitutional officer.

Truth in advertising: Unsubstantiated “facts” and convenient omissions bloomed like algae in campaign advertising. This year’s world champions of sophistry were the proponents of Proposition 39 (school bonds), who touted the measure as “capping tax increases.” They never mentioned its real effect, which is to lower the voting hurdle for bonds from two-thirds to 55%. Runners-up in the hypocrisy sweepstakes were the proliferating “slate” mailers. Typically, their covers featured pictures of political avatars such as Reagan, Bush or Gore, and bore grand titles such as “Republican (or Democratic) Tax-Fighters’ Official Voting Guide.” In fact, most of them simply endorsed whatever candidates or issues paid them the most money.

When I grow up, I wanna be a demographer: Conventional wisdom has been that relative wealth distinguishes Republicans from Democrats. Whether that was ever true, it’s not now. Urban mega-centers (the cities and suburbs of Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Boston and Detroit) are increasingly Democratic, although they are above average in wealth. Rural areas (even poor ones) and fast-growing counties outside the mega-centers are increasingly Republican. The difference seems to be not in wealth but in cultural values, such as gun control, religion and abortion.

Ironically, as the Democratic mega-centers and the Republican heartlands become polarized and predictable, they are marginalizing themselves politically. Gore spent the crucial last day of his campaign in Waterloo, Iowa, while Bush was in Green Bay, Wis. Such nondescript cities are becoming the deans of the electoral college, more important in presidential politics than California and New York.

It’s nice to have good things in life, but working hard and saving money is such a bore. Isn’t there a better way? Yes! It’s easy and fun! Just elect public officials who promise to reward you by taxing, suing, socializing, imposing fees on or regulating the prices of businesses that are politically incorrect. This year’s candidates bashed HMOs, oil, prescription drugs, software, electricity, developers and tobacco. Who will be the private-sector scapegoats next time?

The era of big government is over...and over...and over: This trend never stops. Candidates promise smaller government. Once elected, they undergo an epiphany. In two budgets signed by Democratic Gov. Gray Davis, state spending went up 36%, to $99.4 billion. The Republican Congress will spend $640 billion on discretionary programs this fiscal year, which is $14 billion more than President Clinton initially requested, $40 billion more than the Republicans’ own proposed budget and $100 billion more than the limit set by the 1997 balanced-budget agreement.

Trends come and go in elections, but politics doesn’t change. In ancient Rome, Cicero advised political candidates to “take followers with you wherever you go. Call everyone by name. When asked anything, always say yes. Make promises, whether you keep them or not.”