Despite Changes in Belgrade, Montenegro Thinks of Independence

There are celebrations in the streets of Belgrade and high hopes in Western capitals now that Slobodan Milosevic’s destructive reign has ended. But in the tiny republic of Montenegro there is only fear that the world expects a reinvigorated Yugoslavia to rise up along with the democratic masses.

After years of abuse by Serbia, the dominant partner in the Yugoslav federation, Montenegrins have trained their sights on independence. They denounce Belgrade, the Yugoslav and Serbian capital, as lacking any authority over their republic, which is weighing when, not if, to call a referendum on secession.

Newly inaugurated Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica may have broad support from foreign governments and across Serbia’s usually fractured democratic forces. But without Montenegro, the much smaller of the federation’s two remaining republics, there is no Yugoslavia in which Kostunica can consolidate his power.

“What Yugoslavia is he ruling over--the one created by Milosevic based on organized chaos?” demanded Miodrag Vukovic, chief political advisor to Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic. “Mr. Kostunica simply has no capacity to bend Montenegro to his will.”

That is pretty much the sentiment throughout the corridors of power and among the captains of industry, such as they are in this Balkan statelet with about 600,000 citizens in territory not much bigger than Los Angeles and Orange counties combined.

When Djukanovic broke with Milosevic ahead of last year’s airstrikes on Yugoslavia by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, he and his pro-Western supporters set off the first ripples of what is now a groundswell for declaring independence from the federation, as did Slovenia, Croatia, Macedonia and Bosnia-Herzegovina during the 1990s.

But with the ouster of Milosevic last week, Montenegro’s most glaring motivation for giving up on Yugoslavia vanished as well. Those here still bent on redefining relations with Balkan neighbors, including Serbia, concede that they have to switch strategies to justify their aspirations.

“Milosevic has disappeared as the reason we need independence, but we must now present a different rationale,” said pollster and political analyst Srdjan Darmanovic. “This won’t be a problem domestically as the government can count on a comfortable majority voting for independence in any referendum.”

What has become more complicated, conceded Darmanovic, is the balancing act Djukanovic must perform between his independence-minded population and Western powers that fear a final dissolution of Yugoslavia could undermine the fragile new democratic forces in Serbia.

Montenegrins insist that they are open to negotiations with the next Serbian leadership to be determined after Dec. 17 elections in the larger republic. But those talks will succeed in restoring an alliance--albeit a looser one--only if that proves to be in the best economic interests of Montenegro, say those steering this mountain stronghold.

“If you take into consideration the present state of Serbia, Montenegro is much better off establishing independence,” said Branko Vujovic, head of the agency for economic restructuring that is privatizing Montenegro’s businesses and resources.

Unlike in Serbia, where the economy’s few major assets that survived last year’s NATO bombing are still managed by Communist-trained political appointees and publicly owned, Montenegro has sold 120 state enterprises to private investors. Entrepreneurs have begun investing again here in the republic’s capital and along the breathtaking Adriatic coastline.

Montenegrins, who constitute less than 6% of Yugoslavia’s population, also bridle at what they see as the knee-jerk domination by Serbia being manifested in the new Yugoslav leadership’s demands for preservation of the federation Milosevic built.

“Kostunica prefers a unitary state. He has made this clear in all of his statements,” said Montenegrin Deputy Prime Minister Dragisa Burzan. “But it is not for him to tell us what we want or need.”

Another key figure of the 18-party coalition that helped Kostunica win the Sept. 24 election, Zoran Djindjic, brought the new president’s proposals to Djukanovic earlier this week. They call for a reduced federal structure but one that would still oversee joint military forces, common foreign policies and use of the same currency--the inconvertible and virtually worthless Yugoslav dinar.

“Is there anything left?” Burzan demanded in exasperation, noting that Montenegro has restored a modicum of economic stability by using the German mark as its currency and holds the withdrawal of the Yugoslav army’s 7th Military Police Battalion still loyal to Milosevic to be the top priority before considering improving relations with the new rulers in Belgrade.

Although the once-omnipresent threat of a military crackdown here seems to have disappeared, Montenegrins still fear that federal troops might sabotage Djukanovic. Many here originally suspected foul play when the president’s car was involved in a crash Monday, which left him with a spinal injury for which he remains hospitalized. However, another presidential advisor, Igor Luksic, said the collision was caused by a young driver who inadvertently steered into the presidential convoy.

Much to the dismay of Montenegrins, Kostunica has repeatedly insisted that the federal constitution--altered by Milosevic and therefore deemed illegitimate here--makes no allowance for Montenegro proclaiming independence.

“What we want is to establish a democratic regime between Serbia and Montenegro,” Kostunica told France’s TF1 television network Monday, proudly acknowledging that he is a nationalist and won’t countenance loss of what is left of Yugoslav territory.

To demonstrate Montenegrin opposition to Milosevic’s constitutional shenanigans and crooked elections, Djukanovic encouraged his supporters to boycott last month’s federal elections. That meant that in the republic only Milosevic supporters took part--less than 20% of the eligible voters--so Kostunica’s coalition got virtually zero backing and the seats in the federal legislature will all go to members of the pro-Milosevic Socialist People’s Party of Montenegro.

Kostunica is negotiating with various forces to seat a federal government and has hinted that he may offer the post of federal prime minister to Predrag Bulatovic, a leader of the pro-Milosevic faction here.

“The negotiations haven’t been completed yet, but we are talking,” said Bulatovic, confirming that the new forces in Belgrade are at least contemplating an alliance of convenience to resurrect federal organs of power.

The new Yugoslav leadership’s courting of Bulatovic, who dismisses Djukanovic as a dictator and mafia don, has further unsettled Montenegrins and could push leaders here to speed up moves toward independence if Western countries fail to recognize what they see as the threat to Montenegro’s stability and democratic future.

“We are patient, but we are not stupid,” said Burzan, the deputy prime minister. “We will wait for democracy to take hold in Serbia--but only as long as it doesn’t damage our own interests.”