Debate Allays Some Voters’ Fears That Bush Isn’t Ready

How optimistic were Republicans after Wednesday’s second debate between George W. Bush and Al Gore?

As Bush flew over Washington on Thursday morning, en route from North Carolina to a campaign stop in this Philadelphia suburb, his pilot pointed out the capital below and announced over the intercom: “Governor, that is your future home on the left-hand side of the plane.”

That’s more than a bit premature: Polls still show Gore and Bush tied in the tightest race in at least 20 years. But, in both parties, there was a fledgling consensus that Bush may have regained the initiative in the seesaw contest by dealing with his central problem more effectively than Gore did in the second debate.

Polls suggested Gore made only limited progress in resolving voter concerns about his honesty and veracity. But by standing toe-to-toe with Gore, especially during the 41-minute opening section of the debate on foreign policy, Bush came closer to convincing voters that he has the skills and intellect for the Oval Office, overnight polls suggested.

“Bush is now pretty close to successfully completing what John F. Kennedy did with Richard Nixon, what Jimmy Carter did with Gerald Ford, and Ronald Reagan did with Jimmy Carter,” says Tom Cole, the chief of staff at the Republican National Committee. “Until he got up to the plate and faced Gore, people were going to wonder if he was ready. Now they are saying they are both competent.”

If anything, the crisis in the Middle East heightened the importance for Bush of passing the credibility test, analysts say. By rushing back to Washington, Gore sought to underscore his strongest suit: the general agreement in the electorate that he is prepared to be president. The Mideast tension intensifies the pressure on Bush to cross that same threshold because it may remind wavering voters that, even in this period of peace and prosperity, in picking a president they are not just choosing which man they would rather watch on the nightly news for four years.

In a backhanded way, even the Gore campaign seemed to acknowledge that Bush bolstered his credibility. After pointedly disparaging Bush in the days leading into the debate as a “bumbler” unready for the White House, Democrats shifted their focus toward attacking the Republican’s record in Texas.

Partly that reflects their conviction that one of Gore’s most effective arguments is to challenge Bush’s Texas performance on the environment, health care and other issues, as he did late in the debate. But it may also reflect a grudging acknowledgment in Democratic circles that, absent a major mistake, Bush crossed an important threshold with voters Wednesday night.

“It was a very important night for Bush,” said one senior Democratic consultant who asked not to be identified. “In a lot of respects this is like the Reagan-Carter debate in 1980, when Reagan had to dismiss a burden of doubt [about his readiness], which he did. And I think Bush dismissed his burden pretty effectively last night. . . . My instinct is that Gore has to do something to change the dynamic or else he is in big trouble.”

After the surprising twists in public reaction following the first debate--when overnight polls gave the victory to Gore but support shifted to Bush in the race itself--few analysts were willing to confidently predict the lasting effect of this second encounter, especially with the turmoil in the Middle East dominating the headlines and distracting attention from the debate.

But one top Democratic congressional aide reflected a widespread view in the party when he said Democrats had abandoned the hope that Gore would knock out Bush in the debates. Now, he said, the best Gore may be able to hope for is to emerge even from the three encounters--and find another way to beat Bush in the three weeks left after next week’s final debate in St. Louis.

Republicans were cheered most that Bush delivered a smoother and generally more confident performance than during the first session in Boston last week. On Wednesday, Bush survived a lengthy discussion of foreign affairs without any major stumble, though former Russian leader Victor Chernomyrdin threatened to sue Bush for alleged damage to his reputation when he suggested in the debate that the former prime minister diverted international loans to his own use.

The overall performance appears to have at least eased doubts about Bush’s capacity to serve as president. In a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll conducted immediately after the debate, 70% of respondents said they believe Bush has the intelligence and knowledge for the Oval Office.

Those judgments might still be eroded if Bush commits a major gaffe before election day, Democrats caution. But, at least for now, Bush appears to have made more progress rebutting doubts about his competence than Gore has about his credibility: Only 56% of those surveyed in the Gallup poll said they considered Gore honest and trustworthy enough to be president. (Democrats insist that, in their private research, assessment of Gore’s honesty improved as much as views about Bush’s competence.)

The principal concern in Democratic circles Thursday was that Gore tried so hard to avoid seeming overbearing that he failed to draw sharp contrasts with Bush--until the debate’s final section when he focused on the Texas record.

At times, Gore seemed surprisingly tentative even in presenting his own agenda. In response to a question about gun control, Gore gave a rambling answer in which he never mentioned his proposal to require photo licenses for handgun owners; only after Bush criticized the licensing proposal did Gore allude to it.

“I thought Bush did a very good job of reframing the issue debate in a way that works much better for him,” said the senior Democratic consultant. “Bush knew exactly what point he wanted to prove: Gore is for government and I’m for people. What you got with Gore was a list of issue positions, but the different strands were never tied together.”

For Democrats, the brightest point in Wednesday’s debate was Gore’s sharpened attack on Bush’s record in Texas. In several of his most confident and aggressive moments, Gore lashed Bush for failing to support hate crime legislation that died in the Texas Legislature in 1999; for proposing voluntary rather than mandatory emission reductions for certain older industrial plants; and, above all, for allegedly placing a low priority on providing health care to uninsured children.

Democrats quickly signaled Thursday that they intend to expand that opening wedge. Strategists inside the Gore camp believe they fumbled last week by failing to drive a clear message in the days after the first debate--while Republicans hammered at relatively minor misstatements the vice president made in the session. This time, Democrats are coalescing around a concerted effort to critique Bush’s Texas performance.

Most visibly, vice presidential nominee Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman began a two-day “failed leadership” tour in Texas on Thursday. Also Thursday, the Democratic National Committee coordinated press releases from the 50 state Democratic parties denouncing aspects of Bush’s record. On Saturday, Democrats will televise in battleground states a rally of Latino leaders in Texas denouncing Bush’s record on issues of concern to that community.

All of this builds on DNC television advertising focusing on the Texas record. The DNC is running ads targeting battleground states, each criticizing a specific aspect of Bush’s record. In a heavy new advertising buy in Florida, for instance, the DNC ads cite Bush’s environmental record and charge he would threaten the Everglades. An ad in Iowa denounces Bush’s record on education and children’s health.

Republicans are divided on how great a threat this thrust represents. Many GOP strategists note that President Bush tried to discredit Bill Clinton by highlighting failures in his Arkansas record.

But GOP pollster Bill McInturff says he saw some warning signs in a focus group he conducted during Wednesday’s debate with undecided women voters in Kentucky. McInturff says that, although the group gave Bush the edge overall, the charges about uninsured children stuck with some of them. And in the days ahead they are sure to hear more about them.