Grinch Hopes to Steal Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving weekend has always been a high-stakes box-office derby, and never more so than this year’s runoff among pricey blockbuster hopefuls. Hundreds of millions of studio dollars are riding on a handful of movies, all aimed at the family audience.

History shows the five-day weekend is prime time for launching broad audience crowd-pleasers such as “Home Alone,” “Toy Story” and “Mrs. Doubtfire.” But this year, the field is so crowded that studios are worried that the audience won’t expand to accommodate all their offerings.

Universal Pictures is fielding the single most expensive movie, the first big-screen version of a classic Dr. Seuss book, “The Grinch Who Stole Christmas,” due in theaters Nov. 17.

Believing it has hatched a perennial franchise, the studio is investing more than $200 million in the making and worldwide marketing of the Imagine Entertainment movie starring Jim Carrey and directed by Ron Howard.

Rival Disney fears “Grinch” might steal its Thanksgiving--the holiday season it has dominated for six years. Not willing to give up the lucrative turf without a fight, Disney is delivering a one-two punch the day before Thanksgiving, releasing its sequel “102 Dalmatians” and “Unbreakable,” a new supernatural thriller from “Sixth Sense” director M. Night Shyamalan.

Disney is betting big money on its two entries, each of which cost more than $80 million to make and tens of millions of dollars more to market. “We have released a Disney movie every Thanksgiving for more than a decade and the public has come to expect that,” said Dick Cook, chairman of the Walt Disney Motion Pictures Group.

But Cook denied that putting “Unbreakable” on the same date as “102” (Nov. 22), was a move to dominate the Thanksgiving weekend and undercut “Grinch.” “The stakes are too high to play those silly games. These are two completely different movies and audiences. We thought we could get the most money from the date,” he said.

Universal’s distribution chief, Nikki Rocco, said that while the coming holiday is “a very highly competitive corridor,” she and her colleagues believe “we have the goods with ‘Grinch.’ ”

While the 15-week summer box office (Memorial Day through Labor Day) accounts for 40% of the year’s total revenues, the seven-week period between Thanksgiving and New Year’s is the second-busiest moviegoing season, representing 16%, said Paul Dergarabedian, president of Exhibitor Relations Co.

Last year’s five-day Thanksgiving weekend set a record with a total box-office take of more than $225 million from all releases. The top film, Disney’s “Toy Story 2,” grossed a whopping $80 million over the five-day period, becoming the biggest Thanksgiving opener.

The next-highest grosser, MGM’s James Bond movie “The World Is Not Enough,” took in $34 million.

Both Disney and Universal’s behemoth marketing machines are in high gear, ready to ram more merchandise and promotional tie-ins down the throats of consumers than even the most ravenous buyer can swallow.

Get ready for barking cereal spoons, color-changing dog bowls and Spotacular Vanilla and Chocolate Dalmatian Sensation ice creams for “102 Dalmatians.”

Industry veteran Edward Feldman, producer of “102 Dalmatians,” sent Cook a letter praising him and his Disney staff “for giving me a marketing presentation that I had never seen in my life. They are going bonkers.” Feldman was executive producer of “101 Dalmatians,” which grossed $136 million in the U.S. and was a very profitable franchise for Disney.

Then there are the Grinch-inspired shower radios, extreme sport skateboards and in-line skates, waffle makers and inflatable furniture, among zillions of the usual lunch boxes, bedsheets, pajamas, trading cards, Band-Aids, board games, books and action and plush toys.

“It’s gift-giving time, which is why all these merchandising movies come out,” “Grinch” producer Brian Grazer said. “This is the most competitive Thanksgiving time I’ve seen in my entire career. “Audiences are picking movies that reach them on a marketing basis. Word-of-mouth becomes much less important.”

The rest of the studios are in the race as well. Paramount Pictures is throwing its marketing weight behind its $30-million sequel “Rugrats in Paris: The Movie,” launching what it claims is its “largest and most ambitious” promotional campaign ever. Seductive sweepstakes prizes include everything from trips to Paris to $75,000 in cash.

Paramount has the added advantage of its sister company Nickelodeon running the “Rugrats” TV series with a constant stream of movie ads.

“It’s going to be a very competitive time, but we have a huge established franchise and a built-in audience--a passionate fan base,” said Paramount Pictures Vice Chairman Robert Friedman.

The first “Rugrats” movie, which cost $25 million, is one of the highest- grossing non-Disney animated films ever, taking in just over $100 million domestically when it was released during the 1998 Thanksgiving weekend. The movie generated huge merchandising profits.

Add to the mix such broad-appeal movies as New Line Cinema’s $80-million Adam Sandler comedy “Little Nicky.”

“Families are going to be pulled in a lot of different directions,” said Dergarabedian. “There is going to be some cannibalization.”

And though many families will go to more than one movie during the five-day period (Wednesday-Sunday), there is only so much business out there.

“There is no precedent for several movies earning over $40 million over the Thanksgiving weekend--it’s statistically impossible,” said Dergarabedian.

Hence the nervous studios. Universal officials say the direct production cost for “Grinch” is $120 million. Some sources close to the studio dispute that figure as being short by at least $20 million. Also in dispute is just how much back-end Universal is giving away on the movie. The studio says that total is 32%: 28% to be split among Carrey, Howard and Grazer and 4% for Audrey Geisel, widow of Seuss author Theodor Geisel. Others familiar with the deal say it is a combined 36%.

All these profit participants are guaranteed upfront fees against a certain percentage of the studio’s gross box-office revenue. Geisel gets $5 million, Carrey $20 million, Howard $10 million and Grazer about $2 million.

While Universal is by far giving away the biggest back-end of its competitors, “Unbreakable” director Shyamalan and its $20-million star Bruce Willis each get a healthy chunk of profits, though Disney has a policy to not give away more than 25% of the gross revenue. New Line paid Sandler $20 million against 20% of the gross revenue to star in “Little Nicky” plus $3 million to write and produce with his partners.

New Line Pictures President Mike DeLuca acknowledges that “Little Nicky” cost $80 million because of Sandler’s salary and the film’s special effects. But it is money well spent given Sandler’s huge following, especially among teens. Set for a Nov. 10 release, he says, it “is a movie for the whole family.”

Universal is sanguine as well. Rick Finkelstein, president of Universal Pictures, said, “We are comfortable with the risk. We consider this a huge franchise event film that will be a perennial holiday favorite and exploited across all our entertainment platforms, including licensing and merchandising, home-video and DVD sales and theme-park attractions.”

Last year, Universal opened “Seuss Landing” at its 110-acre Islands of Adventure theme park in Orlando, Fla., and this Christmas will feature a temporary “Whoville” attraction at its East and West Coast parks. The studio also has two other Seuss movies in development: “The Cat in the Hat” and “Oh, the Places You Will Go!”

Grazer, who doesn’t lose a penny if “Grinch” flops but stands to make a fortune if it’s the worldwide phenomenon he believes it will be, says, “My logic side says we’ll probably do really well; but emotionally, I’m completely nervous.

“And, whether or not we have the most or least at stake, you view it as an individual. It’s pride-oriented.”

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No Time for Turkeys

Hollywood studios traditionally use the Thanksgiving holiday as a launch pad for some of of their highest-profile and most expensive movies. This year, the competition and stakes may be the highest yet.

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The Decade’s Top Thanksgiving Films ...

Five-day holiday weekend

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Year Title (distributor) gross, in millions 1999 Toy Story 2 (Buena Vista) $80.1 1998 A Bug’s Life (Buena Vista/Pixar) 45.7 1997 Flubber (Buena Vista) 35.9 1996 101 Dalmatians (Buena Vista/Disney) 45.1 1995 Toy Story (Buena Vista/Pixar) 39.1 1994 The Santa Clause (Buena Vista) 27.4 1993 Mrs. Doubtfire (Fox) 27.6 1992 Home Alone 2: Lost in New York (Fox) 39.0 1991 The Addams Family (Paramount) 27.8 1990 Home Alone (Fox) 28.7 1989 Back to the Future II (Universal) 43.0

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... and the Grosses Keep Adding Up

Total domestic grosses for Thanksgiving weekend, in millions

1994: $140.1

1995: $159.1

1996: $152.9

1997: $154.0

1998: $182.3

1999: $225.5

Source: Exhibitor Relations

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