Sanchez Has Big Edge Over Tuchman in Money, Polls

She has $1.5 million at her disposal. A poll shows the Garden Grove Democrat has a commanding, 21-point lead. She has precinct walkers, telephone banks, campaign mailers and ads on cable television.

The election still is two weeks away, but campaign workers for Rep. Loretta Sanchez have a glow of confidence, a sense that she’s all but clinched her third term in Congress.

This is not the picture rival Republicans had hoped for.

The scenario in GOP circles was that Gloria Matta Tuchman, a Santa Ana teacher who scored well in the central-county district when she ran for state superintendent of schools in 1998, could mount a competitive campaign and pry the seat from Sanchez.

So far, the campaign is not unfolding that way. Going just by the numbers, Sanchez would appear to have put the race away as long as eight months ago.

In the March open primary, the two-term incumbent got 40,000 votes--about 14,000 votes more than her two Republican challengers combined. That advantage, especially in an election in which voters were allowed to cross party lines, indicated Sanchez has a firm grip on the district she wrestled from longtime Republican congressman Robert K. Dornan in 1996.

Tuchman’s campaign, meanwhile, has suffered from lackluster fund-raising in the only Orange County congressional district where Democrats outnumber Republicans. A poll completed early this month for the Los Angeles Times’ Orange County edition showed Sanchez holding a 21 percentage-point lead, with a sizable edge in every demographic group.

“No one’s going to beat Loretta but Loretta,” said Fred Smoller, who teaches political science at Chapman University, Sanchez’s alma mater in Orange. “Tuchman has a future--in other races.”

Other candidates in the race are two veteran minor-party hopefuls: Libertarian Richard B. Boddie, a motivational speaker from Costa Mesa, and Natural Law Party candidate Larry G. Engwall, a marketing manager from Santa Ana.

Those writing off Tuchman are speaking too soon, said Jarryd Gonzales, Tuchman’s campaign manager.

“It’s almost the opposite of 1996 when Loretta was around, out there, talking to people and no one thought she had a chance,” he said. “Loretta’s taking the race for granted.”

Republicans are hoping Tuchman will benefit in the final weeks of the campaign from the rising fortunes of presidential nominee George W. Bush, who in recent opinion polls has pulled ahead of Vice President Al Gore.

“We think this will provide added energy for Republicans to come to the polls and that will be good for candidates like Gloria,” said state GOP executive director Jon Fleischman, who ran Tuchman’s 1998 state superintendent-of-schools campaign from Orange County.

Teacher Tuchman vs. Insider Sanchez

In the March primary, Gore won the central county district by more than twice the combined votes for Bush and Arizona Sen. John McCain, the top GOP vote-getter.

“Gloria is from Orange County, she’s a schoolteacher in the district, and she’s passionate about education and the future,” Fleischman said. “We think she’s a great fit for the district.”

Tuchman has concentrated on education issues in the working-class district, where Latinos account for about half the population, and the most visible employer is Walt Disney Co. A co-author of Prop. 227, a successful 1998 ballot initiative that ended mandatory bilingual education in California, Tuchman supports private-school vouchers and decentralizing power from the federal level to local schools.

In other issues, Tuchman opposes new taxes, supports using federal-budget surpluses to strengthen the Social Security trust fund, and favors toughening federal laws against hate crimes. She also opposes the tax “penalty” on married couples, and supports giving federal tax breaks for those buying their first homes.

“[Tuchman’s] message is the American dream,” campaign manager Gonzales said. “Education is so important, and she wants to make it easier for people in the 46th District to keep more of their own money.”

However, it’s a message that may be tough for Tuchman to spread as the campaign winds down. As of Sept. 30, she had less than $50,000 to spend, an amount dwarfed by the $1.5 million Sanchez says she has left in her war chest.

The National Republican Congressional Committee had pledged $35,000 in state party money to the race. But the funding hasn’t materialized, Gonzales said.

Sanchez, meanwhile, has been busy coordinating volunteers, precinct walkers, phone banks and get-out-the-vote efforts. She is running cable television ads--a successful tactic from her 1996 campaign. So far, about 25,000 absentee-ballot applications have been requested in the district, she said, with about 15,000 from Democrats and others targeted by her campaign.

“We’ve identified our voters, we’ve contacted new voters, and we know what we have to do,” Sanchez said.

Sanchez is touting her record in the 106th Congress, including securing millions of dollars in military appropriations for aerospace, electronics and defense firms in the district. Sanchez sits on the House Armed Services Committee and the Education and the Workforce Committee.

In other legislation, she pushed for $1.5 million for ground-water testing in Orange County, with hopes for another $2 million for treatment programs. Sanchez also is seeking $5 million from the current budget to fund a center for seniors and multicultural activities in Westminster. As of Friday, the budget hadn’t been approved, keeping lawmakers in Washington far longer than they expected.

The two candidates met twice in candidate forums, once before senior citizens and again before law-enforcement groups.

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In the Money

Rep. Loretta Sanchez has swamped her Republican opponent in fund-raising, with xxx remaining cash for the final two weeks of the campaign. Early hopes that Republican Gloria Matta Tuchman would get a boost from the National Republican Congressional Committee evaporated as other House races took precedence. Republicans hold a slim six-seat margin in the House.

Rep. Loretta Sanchez, Democrat

Contributions: $1,560,074

Expenditures: $876,395

Amount from PACs: $351,092

Amount from individuals: $1,089,314

Cash on hand: $1,531,880

*

Gloria Matta Tuchman, Republican

Contributions: $254,809

Expenditures: $205,723

Amount from PACs: $54,432

Amount from individuals: $199,614

Cash on hand: $49,086

*

NOTE: Sanchez figures are from June 30 financial statements filed with the Federal Election Commission; Tuchman’s are from Sept. 30. Other candidates didn’t generate enough income to file statements with the Federal Elections Commission.

Source: Federal Elections Commission