What Al and W Need to Know About O.C.

A major independent poll last week reported that Vice President Al Gore had only a five-point edge over Texas Gov. George W. Bush in California, down from nine points in September and 13 in August. Private polls for the campaigns reportedly showed a similar shrinkage.

Until recently, neither camp had made a major effort in the state, figuring that Gore was sure to win here. But if the contest for California’s 54 electoral votes continues to tighten, then as Mrs. Willy Loman put it, ‘Attention must be paid!”

Paying attention to California means paying attention to Orange County and its 1.2 million registered voters. It won’t be enough just to make appearances and run ads; candidates have to show some familiarity with the county and its concerns. So to guide the gentlemen from Midland, Texas, and Carthage, Tenn., I offer three things that every candidate needs to know about Orange County.

The first is its demographic diversity. Throughout the country, many people cling to the myth that Orange County is a white enclave, a sea of pink skin interrupted only by the occasional sunburn. The numbers tell a different story. The Census Bureau reckons that Latinos make up about 29% of the county population, while 13% trace their roots to Asia or the Pacific islands. Because of immigration from Islamic countries, some 120,000 Muslims make their homes here.

We see the Orange Rainbow all around us. Santa Ana is the second-most-Latino city in the United States, with its percentage ranking just behind El Paso and ahead of Miami. About half the students at UC Irvine are Asian or Pacific islander. Ethnic neighborhoods include Little Saigon in Westminster and Little Gaza in Anaheim.

For political candidates, one lesson is clear: An anti-immigration stance does not pay. What does pay is awareness of cultural nuances. So when Bush talks about the role of faith-based organizations in voluntary social work, he is smart to mention “synagogues, churches and mosques.”

At the same time, heavy-handed pandering is likely to backfire, since no ethnic group has monolithic views. Proposition 227 in 1998, which ended most bilingual education programs in the state, won substantial support among Latinos and majority support among Asians. Attacking this law would be risky for Gore, especially in light of reports suggesting that it has really helped students learn English.

The second thing that the candidates need to know about Orange County is its affection for single-family houses. Because demand is so intense, average home prices have climbed steeply this year, reaching $277,000 in September. Many houses, especially in South County, are worth much more -- meaning that the federal “death tax” or “estate tax” can kick in when their owners pass on to the Great Mall in the Sky. Bush would scrap the tax while Gore would just modify it. Although Gore’s stand has merit, it probably has less appeal in these parts than in places with lower housing costs.

Gore has also denounced “endless, cookie-cutter sprawl” and called for initiatives to curb development of open spaces. That position could backfire here. People in Orange County really like their brand-new housing tracts and would resent Gore’s characterization of their communities. What’s more, stopping development would drive up prices even further, forcing would-be home buyers to seek rentals, which are scarce and costly. People at the low end of the scale would suffer most.

The third thing that candidates must know is the county’s environmental awareness. True, we don’t have nearly as many tie-dyed tree-huggers as, say, Santa Cruz. Nevertheless, the quality of the air and water is of vital concern here, and for very practical reasons. Orange County beaches generate a great deal of local business. When ocean pollution keeps people away from the water, hard times fall on surf shops, gas stations, and restaurants.

In Anaheim Hills and Yorba Linda, a major selling point for homes is their view of the mountains to the north. When air pollution is bad, the mountains seem to disappear, and home sellers resort to the lame line: “Well, if it were a clear day, trust me, you could see Mount Baldy.”

So the pursuit of the dollar makes us green. Call us “property-value environmentalists.” On this point, Gore has the advantage, since he has long been an advocate for strict pollution controls. Bush has sensible positions on the issue, but Gore may be able to draw some blood with his attacks on the poor air quality in Houston.

Orange County is demographically diverse, relentlessly suburban and environmentally sensitive. In many ways, it’s a model of where the rest of the country is heading. For that reason alone, attention must be paid.