Tossed About in TV’s Rough Waters

Considering the big buzzword regarding television’s future is “convergence”--referring to that mystical day when TV, computers and the Internet will coalesce, skipping in unison out of the same little box--it’s somewhat ironic to note the coming television season just might qualify as the most disconnected in years.

Disconnected, that is, in the sense that TV’s various constituencies increasingly appear at odds with each other--except, perhaps, for those brought together in big dysfunctional families as a byproduct of industry mergers and consolidation.

The most traditional connection--between program and viewer--has clearly become tougher to forge in this modern age of cable and satellite dishes, bringing the average home roughly five dozen channels. “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire” and “Survivor” underscore television’s enduring ability to unite millions of people in a common entertainment pursuit, but fragmentation remains the order of the day, with a network catering to virtually every taste.

The evidence of this can be seen less in relation to hits than prime-time failures, which have dropped like a hangman’s platform. Paul Kagan Associates, a media analysis firm, compiled ratings for the top 10 and bottom 10 shows on ABC, CBS and NBC during the last two decades. While ratings for the top shows declined significantly (from more than 25% of U.S. households on average in 1980 to less than 15% today), steady growth in the number of homes means those programs still reach a vast audience of 17 million viewers or more.

The drop is more precipitous, however, among the Big Three’s bottom 10, from 12% of homes in 1980--when most people received just a handful of channels and thus watched the three networks by default--to less than 5% in 2000, or about 6.5 million viewers, underscoring that broadcasting still relies on a level of critical mass that goes beyond virtually any other medium.

What those numbers add up to, in TV circles, is a sobering reality: If you build it, viewers will still come. And if people don’t like it, they will be gone before you can say the third syllable of “remote control.”

Coupled with the uncertainty brought about by technological advancements that keep cropping up, this dynamic has fed a feeling of hysteria and conflict within the television business, fueling acrimony among its many factions.

The most potentially damaging disconnect involves the major network-studios and the unions representing actors and writers, who enter the new prime-time season with the specter of strikes looming ominously on the horizon. The threat of work stoppages in 2001 means that even if the networks manage to catch lightning in a bottle with some new scripted series, any celebration could be short-lived.

Always a curmudgeonly group, TV writers seem more disenchanted with the system than ever before, convinced the corporations writing them checks don’t really care if they have exciting dramas and amusing comedies to offer the public and are content to make a buck with unscripted “reality” series and prime-time newsmagazines.

In a more nebulous way, networks are also less connected to viewers, with broadcasters balancing the need to garner the biggest audience against other financial considerations--taking into account everything from merchandising and licensing to production costs and ownership. Appealing to the most viewers, under this system, isn’t always as important as how well a program sells overseas or who cashes in if a series becomes TV’s next money machine, a la “Seinfeld” or “Home Improvement.”

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Relations between the major networks and the affiliated TV stations that air their programming have also taken a beating, as networks struggle with how to address the future. Affiliates, specifically, fret about networks repeating programs within days or sometimes hours of their initial telecast, often on sister channels.

As an example, you can currently find selected NBC programs--including “The NBC Nightly News”--later the same day on the Pax TV network, in which NBC holds a 32% ownership stake; or catch NBC’s “Law & Order: Special Victims Unit” on the USA cable channel.

Broadcasters say they must recognize shifting viewing patterns and seek ways to help finance production in a fragmented marketplace. To affiliates, however, such deals rob stations of their exclusive claim to being “the home of NBC” programs in a given city.

Another level of disconnect, based on recent seasons, exists between television critics and viewers. Last year, critics had little positive to say before the season began about CBS’ “Judging Amy” and “Family Law,” which both became surprise successes, continuing a pattern established in 1999 by NBC’s “Providence”--another “soft” drama about an independent young woman facing new challenges--and before that CBS’ “Touched by an Angel.”

More praise, by far, was heaped on “Freaks and Geeks,” “Action,” “Now and Again,” “Once and Again” and “The West Wing,” with only the last two destined to return for a second season this fall. Although this is hardly new, the current season may be the first in which a network wears negative reviews as a badge of honor, with NBC billing “Titans”--the latest over-the-top soap from producer Aaron Spelling--as a “guilty pleasure.”

Even the dates for premiering series are disjointed this year. In fact, the official start of the TV season, after wrangling among the networks, was pushed back to October--the first time the starting bell has deviated from a mid-September launch since the Writers Guild of America’s last strike in 1988.

In this case, the delay was caused by the Olympics, but the upheaval about when series premiere only gets worse once the torch flickers out. Presidential and vice presidential debates will preempt portions of prime time, as will election night in early November. Schedulers must also deal with planning around the baseball playoffs, culminating with the World Series.

As a result, many programs won’t premiere until late October or November, forcing them to compete with the big-budget movies and miniseries trotted out to spike ratings in November--one of three major “sweeps” periods spaced across the broadcast calendar.

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With programmers already known for twitchy trigger fingers, introducing new series during sweeps heightens the prospect of snap judgments. The fear among producers is that if the audience doesn’t respond immediately, some programs could be gone practically before the first commercial break.

Programmers enter the season sitting on plenty of replacement material, due in part to the popularity of “Survivor,” inspiring every network to emulate its formula with bizarre new twists on the so-called “reality” genre. CBS has already stated that “Survivor: The Australian Outback” will premiere after the Super Bowl in January, and at least a dozen other similarly themed projects--ordered both because they are inexpensive and can serve as insurance against the possible strikes--will be waiting in the wings. If history is any indication, there will be openings soon.

As always, before the season gets underway new shows tend to blend together--a big hodgepodge of onetime movie stars (Bette Midler, Geena Davis, Gabriel Byrne); former TV stars (Michael Richards, John Goodman, Andre Braugher, Delta Burke, Craig T. Nelson, Christine Baranski, and “Wings’ ” Steven Weber and Tim Daly) trying to prove you can go home again; and fresh faces who, if all goes well, will be holding out for more money in the near future.

With four hours of “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire” strewn across its lineup, ABC remains the network to beat, taking advantage of the quiz show’s popularity to schedule just four new series this fall. The questions without final answers are when “Millionaire’s” largess will fade, and just what sort of condition ABC will be in if it hasn’t launched some new hits in the interim.

After a summer spent sipping at “Survivor’s” fountain of youth, CBS looks destined to creep back to its cantankerous ways with a schedule featuring such aforementioned veterans as Midler, Nelson and Baranski. It’s a lineup that calls upon “Diagnosis Murder,” a program whose audience has a median age of 61, to counter NBC’s juggernaut, “ER,” whose median viewer age is 41. For CBS, with the Super Bowl and second “Survivor” due in January, life may really begin in 2001.

Hope of a better future is less apparent at NBC, where the new program roster has been plagued by nagging questions since reports that some network officials were less than thrilled with their shows--the prototype for Richards’ project, for example, was scrapped before the “Seinfeld” co-star’s show was allowed to see the light of day.

The perceived vulnerability of NBC’s new shows, coupled with the network’s tardiness in jumping on the “reality” bandwagon and raised expectations thanks to the Olympics, has spurred uneasiness at the network and kept alive rumors of possible management changes. Despite network denials, the perception lingers that NBC could make some internal moves if the fall campaign resembles a house of horrors in the weeks following Halloween.

Fox--a place where instability is business as usual--made its own executive switch last spring, beginning the season with a new president of entertainment for the sixth time in the last decade. Fox came away from a disappointing season with a new hit in “Malcolm in the Middle,” although the network will test viewers’ loyalty by running the show twice a week through November--on Wednesdays and Sundays--to fill a gap in its lineup.

Amid a list of big-name film producers dabbling in prime time on various networks--Joel Silver, Jerry Bruckheimer and Arnold Kopelson among them--Fox is hopeful its own king of the world, “Titanic” director James Cameron, can steer the studio toward additional riches with “Dark Angel,” a sci-fi story set in the not-too-distant future.

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As proof the disconnection extends into the corporate arena, UPN approaches the season with the sword of Damocles hanging over its head, despite its success vaulting past the WB network thanks to “WWF Smackdown!” Currently owned by Viacom, the parent of CBS, UPN’s core group of big-city stations are being acquired by News Corp., which owns Fox.

Whether either company wants to continue operating a money-losing network remains to be seen, prompting speculation that UPN could be shut down. Also unknown is whether this uncertainty will benefit the WB--seeking to rebound from a weak 1999-2000 campaign--or Pax, with its new ties to NBC. (Speaking of corporate ties, the WB is part-owned by Tribune Co., owner of the Los Angeles Times.)

The demise of UPN would surely be a blow to racial diversity in prime time, because the network is home to some of the most popular series in African American homes, including “The Parkers” and “Moesha.” A more pressing question may be whether the CBS medical drama “City of Angels”--renewed for a second year by the skin of its teeth--and ABC’s new series “Gideon’s Crossing,” starring “Homicide” alumnus Braugher, can survive, providing hope that dramatic programs starring minorities can cross over to a wide audience on the major networks.

As out-of-work writers lament an absence of work thanks to the glut of “Millionaire” and “reality” shows, meanwhile, a handful of their brethren will be busier than ever.

Several A-list writer-producers are responsible for a trio of series, as fidgety network types place their bets on creative wizards with a demonstrable track record. This roster includes David E. Kelley (ABC’s “The Practice” and Fox’s “Ally McBeal” and the new “Boston Public”), Darren Star (two new series, “The $treet” for Fox and the WB’s “Grosse Pointe,” to go with HBO’s “Sex and the City”), John Wells (NBC’s “ER,” “Third Watch” and critical darling “The West Wing”) and fellow NBC stalwart Dick Wolf (“Law & Order,” spinoff “Law & Order: Special Victims Unit” and “Deadline,” a new drama starring Oliver Platt).

“Deadline,” by the way, focuses on a crusading and principled investigative journalist--in this time of disconnection, a hero with whom jaded newspaper critics, at least, should be able to bond.