Fujimori Has Peru Waiting, Wondering

In the wake of President Alberto Fujimori’s momentous decision to hold new elections in which he will not run, Peruvians grappled Sunday with two questions: What really happened? And what happens next?

The citizens of this nation are accustomed to dramatic and mysterious political events after 10 years under a leader with a penchant for audacity and secrecy. But Fujimori topped himself Saturday night, delivering the ultimate bombshell. It seemed tantamount to surrender: Dogged by allegations of authoritarianism and by a scandal that broke Thursday, he promised to step down after holding the new elections as soon as possible.

As the euphoria in the streets died down Sunday, however, Peruvians wondered about the details and mechanics of an uncertain, potentially risky process. Leaders of the opposition urged Fujimori to make way for a transitional government that would lay the groundwork for the elections.

“The Fujimori camp is not talking a transition, and that is worrisome,” said Diego Garcia Sayan, an advisor to former presidential candidate Alejandro Toledo. “The next step should be the resignation of the president.”

Although other opposition leaders went so far as to question the sincerity of Fujimori’s pledge, his partisans praised him. The president will soon make further proposals regarding the announced elections, said Congresswoman Marta Chavez in statements to journalists after meeting with Fujimori late Saturday night.

“The decision was noble and has demonstrated that the interests of Peru are beyond any legitimate political and, above all, personal interest,” Chavez said.

It is hard to imagine Fujimori, a solitary workaholic who relishes the daily business of the presidency, stepping down early. His term is not scheduled to end until 2005. But scenarios circulating among the political elite over Sunday breakfasts here included one in which a temporary government would be headed by the vice president, Francisco Tudela, a former foreign minister who has played a mediating role with the international community during recent crises.

Another potential leader during a transition would be Jorge Santistevan, the government human rights ombudsman. Santistevan is widely respected and, while critical of the administration, maintains good relations with Tudela and other leaders.

Tudela also is a likely candidate to run for the nation’s top job if the Fujimori camp regroups and presents him as an heir to the president.

Former Candidate Hopes for United Front

As for the opposition, the obvious front-runner is Toledo, a former World Bank economist who forced a runoff election for the presidency last spring and then boycotted the troubled vote. Before ending a trip to the United States to return home, Toledo said Sunday that he hopes to lead a united opposition.

“We are going to make . . . every effort to go to these general elections with a unified candidacy,” Toledo said in an interview with a Peruvian radio station.

The Stanford-educated Toledo, an animated campaigner of humble indigenous descent, has shown a talent for mobilizing massive demonstrations against the president. But he has also been criticized as erratic and disorganized. Political fortunes change fast here. Fault lines have appeared in the opposition since Fujimori’s reelection to an unprecedented third term in May, and they could produce strong alternative candidacies.

On Sunday, concerns about the future mingled with rampant speculation about the upheavals that might have caused the political earthquake. The accumulated weight of international pressure clearly played a role in Fujimori’s decision. Despite past U.S. support for his economic policies and fights against drugs and terrorism, the State Department has led international efforts this year to force him to make democratic reforms.

The U.S. Embassy here issued a hopeful statement Sunday.

“We welcome the bold step taken by President Fujimori,” said an embassy spokesman. “It has our full support.”

The State Department urges Peru’s political factions to resume a dialogue on democratic reform sponsored by the Organization of American States, the spokesman said. Those negotiations, which began last month and were interrupted by last week’s scandal, could be the ideal vehicle to guide the transition. Preparing this fragile democracy for an orderly election is expected to take months.

Apart from outside factors, key developments took place deep in the shadows of a government characterized by intrigue and espionage. There appears to have been a breakdown within the ruling apparatus, a civilian-military alliance dominated by Fujimori and his intelligence advisor, Vladimiro Montesinos.

Fujimori’s promise Saturday night to dismantle the intelligence service, the institution central to his rule, suggested that he had acquiesced to criticism focused on Montesinos, who has been widely viewed as the behind-the-scenes powerhouse. Until Saturday, the president had defended Montesinos against longtime allegations of corruption, political dirty tricks and human rights abuses.

“This is the Peruvian Watergate,” said Alberto Arcinegas, a retired army general who went into exile in Argentina after a run-in with the government.

Rather than Watergate-style audiotapes, though, the fateful scandal was triggered by a 56-minute videotape made public Thursday evening. The images and dialogue were remarkable, featuring a relaxed Montesinos handing stacks of money to a congressman who agreed to support the president. The scene was allegedly part of a bribery campaign this summer that ensured the president a legislative majority.

Image of Mystery Shattered by Video

The drama shattered Montesinos’ carefully cultivated image of mystery and omnipotence because his own weapons seemed to have been turned against him. He has made only a handful of public appearances during the past decade. Opponents allege that he has amassed thousands of compromising videotapes and files on prominent Peruvians.

Just as dramatic was the political opposition’s success in obtaining the videotape, apparently captured by an official camera that records activity in the offices of the National Intelligence Service, or SIN. The leak was most likely the work of well-placed officials in the spy agency itself or in one of the military intelligence services that have clashed with the SIN in recent years.

The resulting clamor for the ouster and prosecution of Montesinos had raised expectations that the advisor might be removed. The opposition and foreign governments had insistently called for reforms of the intelligence service and, explicitly or implicitly, for Montesinos’ dismissal.

Fujimori’s apparent inability to get rid of his advisor without bowing out himself raises a host of questions. One theory is that the alliance finally fell apart completely and that Montesinos brought Fujimori down with him.

“This shows the incredible power that the advisor Montesinos attained in the government,” said Congressman Henry Pease. “The impossibility of removing him forced the decision by Fujimori.”

Another theory is that elements within the armed forces were disgruntled with the regime and engineered a kind of clandestine coup, using cameras and the media instead of tanks and guns.