Another Ulster Cliffhanger

The effort to find a permanent peace for Northern Ireland seems perpetually on the brink of failure. Despite this, an IRA cease-fire in place since 1997 and the signing of the detailed Good Friday peace agreement in April 1998 have produced a more civilized political environment. It is obvious that no one wants to return to war.

The current crisis is Saturday’s deadline for Protestant leaders to decide whether they will stay in the Northern Ireland Assembly or allow Britain to dissolve the body. The issue is disarmament of the Irish Republican Army, the main Catholic paramilitary force. To prevent dissolution, the IRA said this week it will “put its weapons completely and verifiably beyond use.” It has not said publicly when or how this will happen.

The IRA should be more forthcoming about how it proposes to seal its caches of arms and explosives. But its unrevealed proposal satisfied the international commission responsible for the disarming of paramilitary forces in Northern Ireland. The promise should draw the Unionists back to the table.

Last month, the Irish and British governments promised a reduction of the British military presence in the north and a thorough reform of the predominantly Protestant police force to make it more acceptable to Catholics.

Taken together, these developments ought to trigger more negotiation, not more refusal. “People should see the historical significance rather than trying to see difficulties in it,” said Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern.

The political reality is that the hard-liners among the Unionists are likely to prevail and Britain will have to dissolve the government. But the IRA has taken an irrevocable step forward, and that in itself remains cause for hope.