Tough Odds but High Stakes

The United States, Europe and moderate Arab governments should increase, not abandon, their efforts to gain a cease-fire between Israel and the Palestinians. The chances may be slimmer than ever since Israel’s announcement Wednesday that it has severed relations with Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, but the stakes are too high to give up.

Arafat’s unwillingness or inability to stop terrorist groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad from attacking Israelis in restaurants, on buses and on street corners has marginalized him, and not only among Israelis. Leaders in Jordan, Egypt and Europe are rightly furious with Arafat for not quelling violence that threatens to spread outside Palestine and Israel, disrupting regional stability and the U.S.-led international campaign against terrorism.

Former Israeli Foreign Minister Abba Eban once said that Palestinians never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity. The latest example is one of the worst yet. Arafat ordered the closing of the offices and institutions of Hamas and Islamic Jihad Wednesday only after commando-style attacks on Jewish settlers in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Had he acted a week ago, immediately after attacks on civilians in Haifa and Jerusalem, he would have had a better claim to legitimacy as an effective leader of the Palestinians. And Israel might not have escalated its tank and helicopter gunship attacks on Palestinian Authority installations in the West Bank and Gaza. That Israel’s harsh military actions met so little world condemnation speaks volumes.

After the Jerusalem and Haifa killings at the start of December, Israel demanded that Arafat arrest the killers and other terrorists it named. The U.S. echoed those demands and did nothing to dissuade Israeli retaliation. Washington’s snub is another blow to Arafat’s claim of credible leadership.

It is unclear whether Israel means to bypass the Palestinian Authority along with Arafat. Many Palestinians believe that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon wants to sideline Arafat and destroy the Palestinian Authority; Israel’s declaration Wednesday that Arafat is “irrelevant” supports that belief.

Despite its own anger with Arafat, Washington has not declined to deal with him. U.S. special envoy Anthony C. Zinni’s two weeks in Israel have coincided with one of the most severe outbreaks of violence in years. Still, he stayed in the region and conferred Thursday with Sharon.

Zinni has met with all the right people but has had no chance to broker a cease-fire. The alternative to a cease-fire, however, is a war, one in which Israel will annihilate Palestinian forces unless Arab nations send armies to their defense.

The cycle keeps escalating. Israel’s assassination of men it deems terrorist leaders provokes retaliation by suicide bombers belonging to Hamas or Islamic Jihad. Arafat has thousands of people in his security forces; he needs to use them to cripple the terrorist organizations. That would give the United States and Arab nations such as Jordan and Egypt, which have signed peace treaties with Israel, the chance to help work out a cease-fire.

This month Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Jordan’s King Abdullah II issued a joint statement condemning violence and retaliation by both Israelis and Palestinians. Mubarak also sent his foreign minister to Israel for the first time in years to meet with Sharon, winning praise from President Bush although the trip produced no concrete results.

If Arafat arrests terrorists named by Israel and stops suicide bombers he may be able to salvage his role as leader. If not, nations deeply involved in promoting the peace process will have to determine with whom to deal and then start talking.