The Times Film Report

This report is based on projections of total U.S. box-office gross from a consensus of industry sources and studio financial models. The U.S. and Canadian returns (about 55% of gross) represent only 20% of a film’s final revenue, which includes overseas theatrical, video and TV income. The industry marketing average of $30 million per film is factored into these profit equations, as is the relative strength of specific film genres in foreign markets. Results for the weekend of Dec. 21-23:

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Highlights:

* Each film in the “Lord of the Rings” trilogy costs about $100 million to make and at least $50 million to market. New Line paid for most of the budget through the sale of foreign rights and overseas tax incentives. Most of its profit will come from the domestic market. Theatrical release of the first film should cover expenses, and ancillary markets should bring in a profit north of $50 million because there are minor profit participants--Miramax, which developed the project, and director Peter Jackson.

* “Jimmy Neutron” also looks to break even in theatrical release with profit to come from ancillary markets.

* The low-budget “How High” should be profitable for Universal, and “The Royal Tenenbaums” should at least break even for Disney’s Touchstone Pictures. “The Majestic” and “Joe Somebody” appear unlikely to cover their costs.

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Mega-Moneymakers ($50 million or more in profit)

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Box- Estimated office cost, in Movie title Studio rank millions Harry Potter Warner Bros. 6 $130 Monsters, Inc. Disney/Pixar 9 115 Lord of the Rings New Line 1 100 Ocean’s Eleven Warner Bros./Village Roadshow 2 90

Projected U.S. box-office receipts, Movie title in millions Harry Potter $320 Monsters, Inc. 240 Lord of the Rings 210 Ocean’s Eleven 160

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Moneymakers ($10 million or more in profit)

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Projected Box- Estimated U.S. box-office office cost, in receipts, Movie title Studio rank millions in millions Vanilla Sky Paramount 4 $68 $75 Jimmy Neutron Paramount 3 25 65 Behind Enemy Lines Fox 11 40 50 Not Another Teen Movie Sony 7 16 35 How High Universal 5 12 30

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Tossups ($5 million or more in profit/loss)

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Projected Box- Estimated U.S. box-office office cost, in receipts, Movie title Studio rank millions in millions The Royal Tenenbaums Touchstone 12 $21 $24

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Losers (less than $5 million)

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Box- Estimated office cost, in Movie title Studio rank millions The Majestic Warner Bros./Village Roadshow 8 $72 Joe Somebody Fox 10 38

Projected U.S. box-office receipts, Movie title in millions The Majestic $30 Joe Somebody 22

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Notes: Cost estimates are for production only. Only half of box-office receipts come back to the studio.

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