U.S. Can Cool a War Fever

Indian and Pakistani troops routinely exchange small-arms fire and occasional mortar rounds along their border in Kashmir, their two nations’ mutual hatred always on the edge of exploding in larger violence. The last two weeks have seen each side moving troops, missiles and aircraft closer to the mountainous front lines, ready for all-out war. Such preparations would be ominous at any time, but with both countries now brandishing nuclear weapons and the U.S. focused on Afghanistan, the threat is even greater.

This Bush administration should take a cue from the previous Bush administration and send a high-level delegation to the two nations to actively broker peace. Secretary of State Colin L. Powell has focused intently and with some success on defusing the immediate crisis, making telephone calls to both leaders. But he can’t provide the long-term and high-level U.S. presence that would keep up the pressure for peace.

The situation today is reminiscent of May of 1990, when India and Pakistan seemed on the brink of war over Kashmir. President George Bush dispatched his deputy national security advisor, Robert Gates, to both countries. Gates warned that U.S. intelligence showed that both sides seemed to be developing nuclear weapons and getting them ready for launching.

Gates, later CIA director, pointed out the devastation that war would rain on both countries. As India and Pakistan pulled back from the brink, U.S. officials monitored the removal of troops and weapons, satisfying both sides that there was no trickery. In the current administration there are plenty of diplomats in the State Department who know the area well, if not in the National Security Council.

The immediate cause of heightened tension is the suicide attack on India’s magnificent red sandstone Parliament building two weeks ago. The five gunmen were killed, as were nine Indians. Fortunately, the terrorists did not get inside the building, where the prime minister and Cabinet ministers were working.

India blamed two Pakistani terrorist organizations battling Indian rule over Kashmir, the only majority Muslim state in India, a secular nation whose people are mostly Hindus. Pakistan has since moved against the groups named by India, putting the leader of one under house arrest and ordering the removal of the groups’ billboards, banners and flags. The central bank has frozen the accounts of two organizations, and they have been barred from soliciting donations.

India has said that’s not enough. But it should recognize the importance of those actions and the difficulties facing Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf. Many Pakistanis who loathe the Taliban and its brand of religious extremism support the battle for Kashmir. It will take time to persuade them that a nuclear power like India is not going to let territory be taken away.

Kashmir was the issue that prompted two of the three wars between India and Pakistan, and it has threatened to boil over into all-out conflict several more times. Washington assuredly would be involved as peacemaker if the countries went to war; better to plunge in now and try to prevent conflict.