New El Toro Scenarios Join the Mix

An airport at the retired El Toro Marine base could be smaller than currently envisioned, with no additional passengers at John Wayne Airport, under three new scenarios for Southern California airport growth being studied by a regional panel.

Two of the options show an airport at El Toro handling 19 million passengers a year by 2025--about 10 million fewer than Orange County’s plan for the closed base. A third envisions an even smaller El Toro airport, one handling 10 million passengers a year.

Projected passenger loads at Los Angeles International Airport range from 86 million to 98 million under the scenarios for airport growth. Ontario International Airport could be capped at 20 million passengers and John Wayne Airport could remain virtually unchanged, according to the latest options.

The scenarios, along with five earlier plans, are being studied by the Southern California Assn. of Governments, a group of elected officials from 75 cities in six counties. The analysis will be used to plan roads and other improvements where airport growth might occur.

The panel will choose a final plan at its meeting Thursday. While the group’s decision carries political weight, the panel does not the authority to determine the size or passenger load of the airports.

The new scenarios were added after association members indicated that noise, traffic and pollution would be too concentrated in the five plans already under study. The new plans call for limited airport growth across the region, spreading the burdens and benefits, according to a draft report circulated by SCAG this week.

Orange County Supervisor Chuck Smith, who supports building an airport at El Toro, said a regional approach makes sense.

“The bottom line is that runways have to be built where the passengers are. Los Angeles, Ontario and El Toro represent the region’s triangle for air travel demand,” Smith said.

El Toro foes long have dismissed SCAG’s airport projections as inflated. Further, they argue that John Wayne--now capped at 8.4 million passengers a year--could be expanded to handle as many as 14 million if airport demand grows.

“SCAG is acting as if John Wayne cannot accommodate additional passengers,” said Meg Waters, spokeswoman for the El Toro Reuse Planning Authority, a nine-city coalition opposed to the new airport. “Their numbers need to reflect reality.”

The latest SCAG options acknowledge the chorus of opposition from residents who live near LAX, El Toro and John Wayne. South County groups are preparing a third anti-airport measure for the March 2002 ballot and John Wayne neighbors are fighting to extend the current passenger cap, which is set to expire in 2005.

Los Angeles’ plans for LAX are equally contentious. Airport officials want to serve 89 million passengers, far in excess of the 68 million the airport handled last year. According to estimates, roughly 12 million of those passengers are coming from or heading to Orange County.

The idea of building a smaller airport at El Toro was suggested by Orange County board Chairwoman Cynthia P. Coad more than a year ago. She proposed a two-phase approach, with the airport handling 7 million passengers initially, up to 18.8 million passengers by 2020.

Smith said he supports building El Toro in phases based on demand. The county is looking to groups like SCAG for advice on how big the airport needs to be, he said.