California to Gain Only One Congressional Seat

California will gain just one congressional seat as a result of the 2000 census, the smallest number in 80 years. Still, with 53 members, California will have the largest House delegation in history.

The delegation already is overwhelmingly Democratic, as is the state Legislature. With the party controlling redistricting, the question is whether Democrats in Sacramento will seek to increase their majorities and further hobble California Republicans or decide merely to protect incumbents and preserve the status quo.

Complicating matters are term limits, which make legislators keen to enhance their options, and the tension between incumbents and restive Democratic allies--most notably Latinos--who are hungry for a share of power.

“In many ways, Democrats have maxed out,” said Leo Estrada, a UCLA professor of urban planning and a consultant to the Legislature and minority groups involved in reapportionment. “If Democrats want to expand [their power], they will have to expand outside Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area into places that are more competitive.”

That is because much of California’s growth over the last decade has come in the Central Valley, the Inland Empire and the region between Orange County and San Diego, all more conservative than the two big cities.

The overwhelmingly Democratic strength in California is in contrast to the pattern in the rest of the country, where the two major parties are much more competitive. That could increase pressure on Democrats in Sacramento to draw congressional lines here as favorably as possible, to offset a loss of seats elsewhere.

Party strategists may try to carve out a Democratic seat stretching north from the Central Valley, put the one new seat in friendly territory covering parts of the Inland Empire and Imperial Valley, and collapse the districts of two or three Republican incumbents. Those vulnerable are David Dreier of San Dimas, Elton Gallegly of Simi Valley, Gary Miller of Diamond Bar and Steve Horn of Long Beach.

Democrats have a problem, however, within their own party as Latino groups push for greater representation. Creating new districts with Latino majorities could come at the expense of incumbents in such places as the San Fernando Valley and elsewhere around Los Angeles.

“That could require three or four [incumbents] to restructure their districts in fairly dramatic ways,” said Estrada, something self-interested lawmakers are loath to do.

The changes may be less dramatic--and less painful--in the Legislature because there are few places left in California with significant Democratic registration that are not already represented by Democrats.

One wrinkle is the state’s electricity crisis. “It puts the governor in an interesting position,” said Tony Quinn, a GOP analyst. “He has to decide if he really wants to pick a fight” over reapportionment when he may need Republican support to solve the energy mess.