Tokyo DisneySea Nearing Launch; Can Shaky Economy Keep It Afloat?

There was no dearth of doubters when Oriental Land, a Japanese development company, gambled in 1979 on a multibillion-dollar plan to bring Disneyland to the suburbs of Tokyo.

Some 250 million visitors have pretty effectively put those doubts to rest.

But now there’s a new set of doubts as one of the world’s most popular amusement parks is in the midst of its biggest expansion, one expected to cost several billion dollars more.

Japan’s economy is still too shaky to support such an enterprise, some say. There could well be competition from Hong Kong, or Universal Studios, or even regular old TV. And at some point, the novelty of a new attraction has just got to wear off.

Don’t bet on it, said Oriental Land spokesman Shintaro Mogi.

The company forecasts that its new park, Tokyo DisneySea, will attract 10 million visitors a year, on a par with Walt Disney World’s Epcot Center theme park in Florida.

“The more people go, the more they want to go,” Mogi said. “If you build a high-quality facility, the guests will definitely show up. We have confidence in our quality.”

The DisneySea project, due to open in this Tokyo suburb next fall, is nothing if not ambitious.

As its name suggests, the 176.4-acre park will be centered on an aquatic theme, to reflect the Japanese capital’s proximity to the Pacific Ocean.

Attractions will include live entertainment based on the Disney animated film “The Little Mermaid,” a carousel ride from “Aladdin,” and a dip in a submarine based on Jules Verne’s “20,000 Leagues Under the Sea.” A “live” volcano will tower over it all.

Connecting the new park with the original Tokyo Disneyland will be a three-mile monorail with windows shaped like Mickey Mouse.

Oriental Land opened Tokyo Disneyland in 1983, and operates it under a license from the California-based Walt Disney Co. The Tokyo facility looks much the same as its U.S. and European counterparts. Stars and Stripes flap atop facades styled after a turn-of-the-century American town. Mickey and Donald hug kids and mug for snapshots. And, of course, at the center is Cinderella’s Castle.

The American atmosphere--shop billboards and even restroom signs are in English--is designed to give Japanese visitors the feeling of traveling overseas and accounts for much of the park’s popularity.

To keep it fresh, Tokyo Disneyland opens a new attraction about every three years--more frequently than other Japanese parks --and the new rides draw big crowds. Outside the most recent addition, guests patiently waited hours in line for a 4 1/2-minute spin with Winnie the Pooh on his search for hidden honey.

Mogi said Tokyo Disneyland has been so successful that it has pretty much reached its attendance capacity. That’s no surprise to visitors.

“When we go to the park, we don’t go on many rides. The lines are too long and my daughter gets impatient,” said Harumi Watanabe, 33, who has visited Tokyo Disneyland twice with her 3-year-old daughter.

Thus, the need to expand.

Still, officials admit the project has its risks. The company said it will face tough rivalry from the Universal Studios’ Japan theme park--featuring attractions based on popular films “Jurassic Park” and “E.T.”--opening next year in the western city of Osaka.

Oriental Land must also take on a sizable debt to cover the $4.2-billion cost of building Tokyo DisneySea and its surrounding shops and hotels.

Although the company has so far warded off damage from Japan’s decade-long recession, some experts think continued weakness in consumer spending may hurt demand for park merchandise, an important source of revenue.

“I’m not too worried about the number of visits, but I am a bit concerned about the potential for spending,” said Merrill Lynch analyst Ritsuko Tsunoda.

But leisure trends in Japan seem to be on Disney’s side. A government study released in April showed a sharp decline in the amount of time Japanese spend at work every year, meaning more time to play for a nation traditionally known for keeping long hours.

The government has also shifted 16 national holidays to Mondays, creating more three-day weekends And starting in 2002, Saturday will become a mandatory day off at schools.

“More holidays and higher salaries have made people more affluent, and that has helped Disneyland to grow,” Mogi said.

Analyst Tsunoda agreed. Despite a dip in earnings projected during DisneySea’s first year of operation, she said, Oriental Land’s group sales should double to $3.2 billion in fiscal 2004 from $1.6 billion in 1999.