Bush’s First Task: Handle McCain Factor

For weeks, the nation’s editorial pages and television pundits have been opining on the many challenges facing President-elect Bush: a weakening economy, a divided Congress, an impatient public and stalled Middle East peace talks, to name just a few. Yet Bush’s biggest obstacle might come from the fellow who gave him a headache last year at this time: John McCain. How Bush handles the McCain Factor will presage whether he will be seen as a strong leader or a tentative one.

McCain has made it clear for months now that a campaign finance bill will be the first legislative agenda item to cross our new president’s desk. While Bush favors limited campaign finance reform, he has resisted the more sweeping “soft-money” ban touted by McCain, which most Republicans believe would give Democrats a permanent political upper hand.

But what about all those campaign appearances McCain made on behalf of candidate Bush? Why would McCain want to hand Bush such a thorny bill before the new president has even figured out how to use the White House telephone system? What about party loyalty for a president who will need all the support he can get amid Democrats on Capitol Hill who are thirsty for electoral relief in 2002?

In a word--fuhgeddaboudit. Remember, it was McCain who last month ruffled GOP feathers (what else is new?) by publicly speculating on various “power-sharing” ideas that would give Democrats chairmanships of some congressional committees. In the end, McCain will always do what’s best for the McCain agenda. The more vulnerable Bush appears in these legislative wrestling matches, the more formidable McCain will appear--good news not only for McCain and his supporters, but also for Democrats.

Some will argue that Bush’s most prudent course would be to sign off quickly on most of McCain’s campaign finance bill, thus establishing himself as a true, bold reformer. Hogwash.

Yes, McCain has a following. But it has been and is overblown. Basing virtually his entire presidential bid on campaign finance reform, McCain won a few impressive primary contests. But after trouncing Bush in Michigan, his campaign imploded. In New Hampshire, the primary state where McCain was most popular, Bush won only narrowly (so much for the weight of the McCain endorsement). So why should Bush help rewrite history now by bowing to McCain’s legislative crown jewel? And if he did, why would McCain stop at campaign finance reform?

Washington insiders and media elites have been working overtime since the election was decided to lobby Bush toward “bipartisanship” and “consensus-building” with “independent thinkers” on Capitol Hill like McCain. This is the alluring drumbeat that Bush must resist dancing to, for far from strengthening his hand, it will serve only to jeopardize his standing in the country and around the world. Bush would be perceived as a malleable follower, not a forceful leader, which is good for Democrats and McCain but disastrous for Republicans and Bush.

So, President-elect Bush, here are some tips for dealing with the McCain Factor.

* Take your own agenda and promote it, hard. No visits to the ranch in the first six months; no fishing trips, unless it’s fishing for support for the education and tax reform that were the twin towers of the Bush campaign. Do not leave a news vacuum for McCain to fill. Be prepared to govern on your own agenda while McCain scrambles for air time.

* When McCain tries clever procedural maneuvers to advance his agenda, let Hill soldiers Trent Lott, Dennis Hastert and Mitch McConnell deal with him. If the Republican leadership can crack down on McCain, you won’t have to take the heat. Think Bill Clinton. Every time there was a new embarrassing revelation about his Energy or Justice departments, he was three layers removed. It was a “Richardson problem” or a “Reno problem.” Never a “Clinton problem.”

* Be patient. This dynamic will take a while to work out. President Truman couldn’t resist battling Sen. Joe McCarthy, which only made McCarthy more prominent in his maniacal efforts to expose America’s Communists. Yet President Eisenhower took a more sanguine approach to McCarthy’s antics, and eventually McCarthy discredited himself. Similarly, neither you nor your top aides should feel compelled to publicly respond to the latest McCain move.

In the end, McCain has a lot in common with Ross Perot. He claims to stand for “the regular guy,” and appeals to the segment of the population that likes to call itself “nonideological.” But most Americans are either conservative or liberal, which is why so-called nontraditional candidates like McCain, Bob Kerrey, Bill Bradley, Bruce Babbitt and Perot never caught on.

With all the trappings and prestige inherent in the Oval Office, it won’t take much for Bush to overshadow McCain. But it will take political resolve. As much as McCain is loved by the media, he is loathed by conservatives who won’t soon forget his politically expedient grandstanding against the “religious right” in South Carolina (which was hailed by Democrats and the media, of course). And as Bush seemed to remember in his selection of John Ashcroft as attorney general, it is his conservative base that elected him, even if by the narrowest of margins.