Taiwan’s New Axis Tilts Away From China

A fundamental realignment of political forces is underway in Taiwan that could further complicate the island’s already tense relations with mainland China, political observers here say.

The surprising shift, which also carries implications for the United States, has been triggered by the grand old man of the island’s successful transformation to democracy, former President Lee Teng-hui. The 78-year-old has come out of retirement for one last hurrah--with none other than his successor and longtime opponent, President Chen Shui-bian.

Their common cause is both risky and provocative: nurturing the idea of Taiwan’s formal independence from China.

So far, neither leader has officially declared an alliance. But repeated public statements by confidants that have gone unchallenged by the two men, along with a recent high-profile joint public appearance, have left little doubt in the public mind that one already exists.

This unlikely partnership across generations and party lines brings together Taiwan’s dominant political figure of the 1970s and ‘80s--a man who led a party committed to reunification with China but came to champion a separate Taiwanese identity and believe in independence--and a president 28 years his junior who has largely ignored his own party’s pro-independence stance during his first year in office.

For Chen especially, an alliance focused on the independence issue is a major political gamble with an electorate where the vast majority prefer continuing the more moderate status quo--in effect enjoying many of the fruits of independence without provoking Beijing. Any confrontation between Taiwan and the mainland would immediately draw in Washington, which recently vowed to help defend the island.

In fact, those in Taiwan watching the current drama unfold believe that President Bush’s support of Taiwan has encouraged the two leaders.

The latest evidence of the emerging alliance between Lee and Chen came in Taoyuan last week when thousands of supporters from Chen’s Democratic Progressive Party met Lee at the airport after Lee’s 10-day visit to the United States. The enthusiastic welcome turned into a late-night pro-independence pep rally.

Political observers here say the Lee-Chen gambit could trigger a major realignment of democratic forces on the island and redefine the pivotal issue of Taiwan’s relationship with mainland China. Instead of how to move toward political reunification with the mainland, the issue of whether to reunify at all will move from the fringes to the center of the national political debate, these observers say.

“Integration [with China]--for or against--that is the new axis being formed; this will be the decisive issue,” said Chu Yun-han, a political scientist at Taiwan’s National University. “The political landscape will be reconfigured as a result of this. There’s no question about that.”

Beijing, which considers Taiwan a part of China, has become increasingly impatient about the lack of progress toward achieving its dream of reunifying the island with the mainland, occasionally even threatening to use force to achieve it.

Recently, Bush hardened America’s defense commitment to the island, declaring that the U.S. would do “whatever it took to help Taiwan defend herself.”

His comment ended a policy of deliberate ambiguity about the possible U.S. response to a conflict in the Taiwan Strait--a policy meant to keep both Beijing and Taipei from provocative moves.

“In the past six months, America’s strategic policy toward China and Taiwan has changed, and what is happening here is not unconnected to that,” said Hong Chi-chang, a member of parliament from Chen’s party who is opposed to the Lee-Chen alliance.

“It makes their agenda look more viable,” said Chu, the political scientist. “Chen initially harbored doubts about Lee’s approach, but Hainan [the island in China on which a U.S. spy plane landed after colliding with a Chinese fighter jet] and Bush’s statements gave Chen’s advisors enough to pull him in.”

Party Lines Altered

In many ways, Lee’s decision to join with Chen is understandable. Although he headed a party--the Nationalists--historically committed to reunification with the mainland, he was also the first modern leader to actively nurture the notion of a separate Taiwanese identity. His controversial 1999 comment suggesting that relations between Taiwan and mainland China should be on a “state-to-state” basis enraged Beijing and is still seen as a high-water mark for pro-independence rhetoric from a Taiwanese leader.

Although Chen’s Democratic Progressive Party officially advocates Taiwan’s independence, he consistently played down that stance during his successful election campaign last year and has appeared to distance himself still further from the idea during his first year in office.

Nonetheless, China’s leaders have chosen to ignore Chen so far, preferring instead to court his pro-reunification opponents. Because of this, Chen has come under growing pressure from Taiwan’s business community to begin talks with Beijing as more of the island’s entrepreneurs move their production to the mainland to reap the advantages of lower wages and proximity to China’s huge domestic market.

Political observers describe Lee as increasingly disgusted with Nationalist efforts to undermine his successor and having come to see Chen as the only hope for sustaining his vision of an independent Taiwan. Political analysts say Lee hopes to steady Chen’s resolve and revive morale among the pro-independence members of his party.

Chen won the three-way presidential race with less than 40% of the popular vote and can count on only a third of the National Assembly for support. Analysts say he sees Lee as a popular and highly respected national figure who can lift him out of political danger, bringing votes and possibly as many as 35 lawmakers to his ranks through the appeal of his vision in parliamentary elections, which are scheduled for December.

It was against this backdrop that the two met privately early last month and then joined hands onstage a few weeks later in a very public display of mutual admiration. The venue for that display--the inaugural meeting of a political group called the Northern Taiwan Society, regarded as having Taiwanese nationalist sympathies--carried its own message.

A Big Gamble for Both

For both leaders, the risks in such a partnership are considerable.

Many believe that Lee is betting his political legacy on its success, while Chen is also making a major gamble.

By drawing the focus of his party’s parliamentary election campaign to the independence issue, Chen would probably win some Lee backers and reclaim pro-independence hard-liners disillusioned by his backpedaling. However, he could cede the political center.

“It could backfire,” said Hsu Hsin-liang, former head of the Democratic Progressives. “It could be seen as too radical.”

Victory in the parliamentary vote for a Lee-Chen axis would bring even bigger potential risks for Taiwan, observers say. An overtly pro-independence leadership in Taipei, the capital, would diminish the prospects for political dialogue across the Taiwan Strait and possibly even sow the seeds of major confrontation.

Such a scenario would probably affect the growing trade and investment relationship across the strait, encouraging those in Taipei who have been working to restrict it on political grounds and making it harder for Taiwan to gain full benefit from these commercial links.

With unemployment at a near-record high and concerns growing about the economy, Chu predicted that Lee and Chen may try to float what he called “Pat Buchanan arguments,” telling blue-collar workers that trade with China costs jobs, Chu said.