No Cooling Seen in Housing Market

Ventura County racked up its highest home sales in at least 12 years in June, a sign that a nationwide economic slump has yet to significantly touch a tight housing market locally.

Results were driven by sharp gains in the sales of moderately priced homes, as consumers recovering from previous downturns took advantage of low mortgage rates and generous lending programs, analysts said. The latest results suggest the housing market will hold up well through the summer peak period, they said.

“I was kind of surprised,” said John Karevoll, the analyst who prepared the report for La Jolla-based DataQuick Information Systems. “A surge in entry-level and mid-level buying has more than compensated for fewer prestige buyers.”

Total home sales jumped 18.6% over June 2000, to a record 1,730, while the median price was up 8.6% during the same period to $277,000. That compares with Los Angeles and Orange counties, which saw sales dip by 2% and 15% respectively.

Analysts said that disparity largely reflects the differences in price. Markets such as Orange County and the Bay Area, with their profusion of high-priced luxury homes, have been lagging during the dot-com downturn.

The sales figures include new and resale homes as well as condominiums. The median price is the point at which half the homes sold for more and half for less.

The interest rate for an average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was at 6.63% Wednesday, according to Bankrate.com, which publishes nightly averages based on its survey of nearly 3,000 banks in 50 states. That’s down just more than one percentage point from a year ago.

Analysts said that this year’s market has shown a volatile, saw-toothed pattern with an upswing every few months.

“The report just underscores that Southern California is very resilient,” economist Mark Schniepp said. “If there was a significant worry, we wouldn’t see people purchasing housing.”

Schniepp said that higher-end housing sales have slowed, because with the dot-com dive, there is less money from stock options floating around. But the county’s high-tech corridor along the Ventura Freeway has remained relatively unscathed, and employment rates are still healthy.

Moreover, Schniepp said, the housing market is so tight here that it would be unlikely to see a large dip.

“People are buying because they need it,” he said. “This confirms the fact that we’re in a housing crisis and people will do what they need to do.”

That’s true in Thousand Oaks, said Skip Padberg, assistant manager at ReMax Realty. He said that June was busy and that July is looking even better.

“In Thousand Oaks in particular, there’s more demand than supply, especially in the low end,” he said. “Anything in the market priced close to what it should be will go immediately.”

There, where an entry-level home pushes $300,000, Padberg said many of his clients have to start with a townhome or search in Moorpark, Simi Valley or Camarillo.

“My biggest concern is that young people are able to look in the area,” he said. “You need two incomes to live here.”

Karevoll said that many renters are finally deciding to jump into buying a home, as rental prices also jump.

“It’s tough to be a renter these days,” he said. “For the typical resident, rents are higher than mortgage payments. The lending and borrowing environment is really good now. People who might not have qualified for a mortgage five years ago, or even a year ago, can now.”

In eastern Thousand Oaks, sales were up 43% to 117, while prices remained relatively steady, dropping only 1% to $381,250. Other areas with high growth were Ojai, which had sales rise by nearly half, from 30 to 44, and Santa Paula, where sales more than doubled from 19 to 41.

Analysts attribute Santa Paula’s growth to its relative affordability and home availability. Nonetheless, the average price rose there by nearly a third, from $166,000 to $218,000.

Lake Sherwood continues to have the highest prices in the county, rising to $445,000 from $439,500.