Va. House Race May Show GOP What It Faces in ’02

A scrappy Democrat vying to become the first black woman sent to Congress from Virginia hopes to cause President Bush a major political embarrassment as she fights to win an open House seat Tuesday.

State Sen. Louise Lucas and her Republican opponent, fellow state Sen. Randy Forbes, are facing off in a contest that’s being widely viewed as an early indicator of voter attitudes toward Bush and his policies.

That’s largely because the district in Virginia’s southeastern corner has solid credentials as a political battleground; long represented by a moderate Democrat who died earlier this year, the area favored GOP gubernatorial candidates throughout the 1990s. Bill Clinton carried the district by 1 percentage point in 1992; Bush won it in November by fewer than 500 votes.

The result, said Stuart Rothenberg, an independent analyst of congressional campaigns, is that the race looms as “a sort of referendum on George W. Bush, on the energy issue, on Social Security and on the direction of the country.” Indeed, Rothenberg and others will review the outcome as a possible harbinger for the 2002 midterm elections, when control of the closely divided House and Senate again will be up for grabs.

The stakes are underscored by the money the national political parties are pouring into the race to pay for advertisements and other help. Although the total spending won’t be known until several weeks after the election, one estimate is that the combined spending by various national Democratic and Republican campaign committees will approach $3.5 million.

Among the candidates, Forbes reported raising $487,000 as of May 30; Lucas, $429,000.

Packaged as Option to Bush Policies

Analysts recalled that an early indicator of the 1994 GOP landslide that swept the party into power on Capitol Hill occurred earlier that year, when Republicans won special House elections in Kentucky and Oklahoma. The Republicans, who took seats that had been held by Democrats, focused much of their campaigns on attacking the policies of then-President Clinton.

Lucas, 57, is pursuing much the same strategy, offering herself as a counter to Bush policies. She promises to “protect Social Security” against the president’s suggestion that it should be partially privatized by allowing workers to invest some of their payroll taxes. She attacks the administration for not doing more to stem rising gasoline costs, saying the escalating prices at the pump are “putting too much money in the pockets of oil companies.”

She also pledges that her priorities in the House would be to push for expanded health insurance for children and prescription drug coverage for senior citizens under Medicare.

Forbes, 49, has stressed his pro-business record and his strong support for the mainstays of the Bush agenda. “Our businesses deserve a representative who will fight to streamline burdensome regulations and support real tax relief, as well as meaningful education reform initiatives,” Forbes said.

He also emphasizes that his father was a World War II veteran who encouraged him to enter public service “to pay back something to my country.”

A former chairman of the state Republican Party, he was campaigning to become lieutenant governor when national GOP officials urged him to run instead for the open House seat. White House political director Karl Rove and House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.), among others, phoned him. Rove said “that this was a very important seat that the president regarded as vital to the party’s interests,” Forbes said in an interview.

White House interest was even more evident when Vice President Dick Cheney stumped for Forbes earlier this month.

“We think this is an important race,” Cheney said at a $75-a-plate breakfast in Norfolk. “Randy agrees with many of the same fundamental things we believe in.”

Added Larry Sabato, a political science professor at the University of Virginia: “It’s a classic Democrat-Republican race with national implications. Forbes is backing Bush programs 80% to 90% of the time. Lucas is a traditional Democrat. Both candidates would be foot soldiers for their national parties in Congress.”

Defense a Priority in Both Camps

On one issue, the two candidates are in sync: Both advocate more defense spending in a region that is home to the nation’s largest accumulation of Navy bases.

Rep. Norman Sisisky, who had represented the district for 18 years, assisted its defense interests from his seat on the House Armed Services Committee. That, combined with his middle-of-the-road voting record, had made him politically impregnable--he ran unopposed in 1998 and 2000.

Sisisky died March 29, after lung cancer surgery.

Of the two candidates seeking to replace him, Lucas is the more effervescent campaigner. During a stop at a shipyard, she eagerly greeted and hugged workers wearing hard hats as they emerged from their afternoon shifts last week, sometimes calling after old friends and racing across a parking lot to see them.

A mother at age 14, Lucas is proud of her up-by-the-bootstraps career. As a young woman, she became the first female shipfitter at the Norfolk Naval Shipyard, where she worked for 18 years. She later earned a bachelor’s degree and a master’s degree in urban affairs from Norfolk State University.

A victory for Lucas may depend on how well she can energize African American voters, who make up 38% of the district. “Forbes is slightly ahead in the polls, but the outcome could depend on the black voter turnout,” Sabato said. “If Lucas can energize black voters over this final weekend, that could be the key.”

Further illustrating national interest in the contest, the liberal advocacy group, People for the American Way, which investigated voter irregularities in last year’s Florida presidential race, plans to deploy monitors at polling places to ensure that no black voters are disenfranchised.