Davis Favored Despite Energy Woes and Riordan

Despite widespread unhappiness about the state’s electricity crisis, California voters still favor Gov. Gray Davis over three potential Republican rivals, according to a Los Angeles Times poll.

Of the three possible GOP challengers for the governor’s seat, Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan ran most competitively against the Democratic incumbent.

The survey also found that voters strongly believe Davis is doing a better job of solving the energy crunch than President Bush, though both received poor marks.

With slightly more than 16 months until the November 2002 election, Davis appeared less politically vulnerable than many perceived. Riordan--the favored choice of the White House and many in the state GOP establishment--appeared somewhat less formidable than boosters suggest.

And though the prolonged electricity crisis is having a negative effect on voter attitudes, it may not be quite as big a political factor as many presumed. While four in 10 California voters said the governor’s handling of the energy crunch makes them less inclined to support his reelection, a like number said Davis’ performance made no difference in how they would vote.

Sixteen percent of respondents said they would be more inclined to support the governor based on his handling of the power problem.

The statewide survey, conducted over four days beginning June 23, offers a preliminary snapshot of the governor’s race at a time the Republican field is still taking shape. Davis, meanwhile, has been furiously plotting his reelection strategy for months, raising money at a record clip, hiring pricey public relations consultants and waging rhetorical war on the Bush administration and its energy policies.

In theoretical matchups, Davis easily trumped each of his less-known rivals.

Voters favored the incumbent Democrat over Republican Riordan 49% to 35%. Of the three prospective GOP hopefuls, Riordan is by far the best known, after eight years as mayor of the state’s biggest city. That said, nearly half of California voters said they were not familiar enough to form an impression of Riordan.

Bush and many other prominent Republicans have been urging Riordan to enter the governor’s race after he leaves office, convinced that his significant personal wealth and appeal to Los Angeles Democrats and Latinos would make him the strongest candidate against Davis in 2002.

But the mayor ran only marginally better than Secretary of State Bill Jones, the GOP’s lone statewide officeholder. Matched against Davis, Jones trailed the governor 51% to 32%.

Despite his two terms in state office, more than eight in 10 California voters said they were not sufficiently familiar with Jones to have an impression, positive or negative.

The third Republican candidate eyeing the governor’s office is William E. Simon Jr., a Los Angeles investment banker and political neophyte. In a matchup with Davis, Simon trailed the governor 52% to 27%.

Nearly nine in 10 California voters said they had not heard enough about Simon to form an impression.

As for Davis, just about half of registered voters had a positive view of the first-term governor.

In a separate measure, however, only 43% of those surveyed approved of Davis’ overall job performance since taking office in January 1999, while 46% disapproved.

The numbers did not stack up as well as those of California’s two Democratic U.S. senators. Dianne Feinstein won approval from 55% of California voters and Barbara Boxer received positive marks from 44%. Thirty-one percent disapproved of Boxer’s job performance.

Davis fared better than the Democratic-run state Legislature. Overall, 34% of voters approved of the performance of Sacramento lawmakers and 44% disapproved.

And Davis fared considerably better than Bush, who lost California in a landslide last November and has done little to improve his standing.

Forty-seven percent of California voters said they disapprove of Bush’s job performance during his first months in office, compared with 42% who approve.

Neither Davis nor Bush won high marks for handling the state’s energy crisis. Indeed, voters were not happy with anyone or anything having to do with the crunch.

California voters disapproved of Davis’ performance by a 49% to 45% margin, a turnabout from his standing in February. At that time, 51% approved of the job he had done. Since then, however, the state has experienced a handful of rolling blackouts, and consumers have been hit with higher monthly power bills.

Still, comparatively speaking, Davis fared much better than Bush, who has taken a largely hands-off approach to the state’s plight. Nearly seven in 10 California voters disapproved of Bush’s handling of the electricity problem.

Put another way, just about three in four California voters said the governor is doing a better job of solving the energy crisis than the president.

Others roundly faulted include the state Legislature, the privately owned utility companies and both state and federal energy regulators.

More than three in four of those surveyed disapproved of the way California’s utilities have handled the electricity crisis. At least six in 10 were critical of state and federal regulators, and the Legislature received disapproving marks from half of California voters, with just 30% approving.

The sour mood has cast an overall pall on voter attitudes. Fifty-seven percent said they believe the state is going in the wrong direction, compared with 30% who said California is on the right track.

That could be troublesome for Davis, as negative sentiments often translate into problems for the incumbent. But attitudes are changeable and 16 months is a considerable distance to the next election.

In the spring of 1993, for instance, a mere 18% said things were going the right way in California and 73% said things were on the wrong track. Voters disapproved of then-Gov. Pete Wilson’s job performance by a 2-to-1 margin. Even so, Wilson won reelection handily in a landslide about 18 months later.

The Times Poll, conducted under the supervision of Director Susan Pinkus, interviewed 1,216 registered voters over four days beginning June 23. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.