Human Dynamic Swamps State’s Building Blocks

A new awareness has dawned in California that infrastructure has not kept pace with population growth in the state. Growth in population has far exceeded our provision of new road capacity, water supplies, housing stock and, now, even electricity. Ever resistant to growth in the state, Californians have spurned efforts to plan for that growth.

How we were lulled into this state of inadequacy is more than a story of resistance to growth. Immigration lies at the heart of this story. Some would have immigration go away, but none of us can afford to ignore the needs of immigrants because their presence is transforming the state in ways that affect every Californian.

A quarter of the population of California was born outside the United States. When immigrants drive a car, they travel the same roads as native-born Americans. When they turn on the tap, the water they drink draws on the same supplies. When they flip a light switch, the electricity comes from the same power grid.

For several decades, the impacts of rapid overall population growth were moderated by the poverty of many new immigrants. Because most immigrants were newly arrived and poor, their average demands on the state’s infrastructure were relatively low. This prolonged period of sluggish growth in infrastructure use lulled both planners and the public into complacency about long-term needs.

This long-term softening of demand for infrastructure has been a little recognized effect of immigration. Had equal numbers of native-born migrants from Texas and Michigan replaced immigrants from Mexico and Korea, California’s infrastructure demands would have surged much sooner and further, placing the state in worse jeopardy than it is today.

Between 1970 and 1990, new immigrants--those who had lived in the U.S. for less than a decade--increased from 3.4% to 11.1% of the state’s total population. At its peak, an astounding ratio of 1-in-9 Californians was a recently arrived immigrant. The expansion of this demographic segment, together with their children, contributed more than half of the 10 million population increase during the period.

Per capita demands on much of California’s infrastructure slowed because the most dynamic segment, new immigrants, had relatively low incomes on average. In 1990, 19.8% of these newcomers lived below the poverty level, more than double the share among native-born population.

Not only were recent immigrants’ incomes lower but, as of 1990, the average per capita electricity consumption by newcomers was 53% below consumption of the native-born population; water consumption was 27% lower; number of cars owned was 39% lower; and the proportion of homeowners was 72% lower.

Not surprisingly, per capita demands on the state’s infrastructure substantially lagged those in other states between 1970 and 1990. Since the early 1990s, however, the mix of population growth has dramatically shifted, and the demand for infrastructure is no longer softening. Planners and all Californians need to adjust their expectations of future requirements.

The inflow of new immigrants has leveled off, ending three decades of acceleration. Now it is longer-resident immigrants whose numbers are growing most rapidly. Between 1990 and 2000, it is estimated that immigrants living in the U.S. for more than a decade increased from 10.7% to 16.1% of the state’s total population. The number of those who have lived here more than two decades more than doubled since 1990.

According to recent projections issued by the USC California Demographic Futures Project, longer-resident immigrants and their children will dominate the state’s overall population growth through 2020.

One happy consequence is that the poverty rate for all immigrants in California has recently turned the corner, beginning to decline after three decades of increases.

What does all this mean for infrastructure? Historically, income levels and demands for infrastructure have been closely linked. Immigrants’ continued economic progress has the potential to translate into large and previously unexpected increases in demand for roadways, housing, water, electricity and other infrastructure.

Every California resident has a stake in how well planners and decision makers respond to this demographic trend. When the lights go out, they go out for everyone, regardless of where they were born or how long they have lived in the state.