Latinos May Exceed Blacks in U.S.

The nation’s fast-growing Latino population may be large enough to equal or perhaps surpass African Americans as the country’s largest minority group, according to preliminary data from the 2000 census.

Early census figures, contained in reports prepared by a committee of Census Bureau experts, show an estimated Latino population of 35.5 million, compared with 34.2 million African Americans.

But experts caution that the estimates for the Latino population count could include as many as 5 million illegal immigrants, double the number that census statisticians previously estimated are living in the United States.

The debate over the numbers, which may continue for months as statisticians pore over detailed figures from last year’s survey, reflects the challenge of trying to count precisely a nation of more than 280 million mobile people.

The Census Bureau acknowledges there was an undercount that missed more than 3 million people last year. But the Bush administration, on the advice of census experts, decided to stay with the original count rather than try to adjust it and correct for possible errors.

The surge in the Latino population represents a growth from about 23 million in 1990, while the black population showed much more modest gains, rising from about 30 million.

If the preliminary numbers are determined to be accurate after census experts do a detailed analysis in the next few months of the reports from each state and community about ethnic origins, Latinos will officially be the biggest minority group. However, the uncertainty will focus on the precise size of the population of illegal immigrants. The numbers were first reported in the Washington Post.

Census estimates “have understated the amount of Hispanic immigration during the decade of the 1990s,” according to a paper prepared by Jeffrey S. Passel, a demographer who has been a consultant to the Democratic members of the Census Monitoring Board, which was the oversight body during the 2000 census. Previous government figures “point to a significant underestimation of undocumented immigration,” Passel said.

However, other statistical experts are dubious about the theory that undocumented immigration may have gone undetected at very high levels. The continuing yearly studies of population by the census, as well as the work conducted after the 2000 census, make it seem implausible that the illegal population was underestimated by such an extent, according to David Murray of the Statistical Assessment Service, a research organization.

Even if the figures are revised downward when the final count is released, it appears inevitable that Latinos will soon become the biggest minority group, if they have not already done so. The last official figures of November 2000--a regular government analysis not connected with the decennial census--had Latinos calculated at 11.8% of the U.S. population, compared with 12.8% for blacks.

The final census figures are expected to confirm some already well-known information, such as the fact that Latinos are most likely to be residents of central cities, living in large metropolitan areas. The major population centers are in California, Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, Florida, New York, New Jersey and Illinois.

But the 2000 census will have some geographical surprises, experts predict, with major growth of burgeoning Latino communities in the South, including North Carolina and Georgia. And states such as Iowa also are showing an upsurge in Latino residents.

The vast majority of the nation’s Latinos are of Mexican descent--about 66%, government figures show. About 14% are of Central or South American background.