Hands-Off Stand on Macedonia May Backfire for U.S.

The Bush administration’s refusal to intervene in Macedonia’s escalating crisis--through diplomatic mediation or a security role--increases the risk that a Balkan war will once again threaten stability in southeastern Europe, according to a growing chorus of influential U.S. and European analysts.

By failing to take steps to reduce tensions, they warn, the United States also risks unraveling the fragile international peacekeeping operations in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo as well as hardening ethnic and religious divisions in Europe’s most volatile corner.

“Macedonia is an important linchpin. If the fighting is allowed to fester or deteriorate, then a lot of other places around it are also going to fall apart--and we’re very close to that point now. There’s a very strong likelihood that the Balkans will get much more violent if something isn’t done soon,” said Daniel Serwer, head of the Balkans project at the U.S. Institute of Peace in Washington.

So far, the Bush administration has backed Macedonia’s efforts to quell an uprising by ethnic Albanians, whose frustration over spurned demands for greater rights has sparked the worst crisis since the nation’s independence from the former Yugoslav federation a decade ago. Rebel extremists, who launched a siege of Tetovo on March 14, were under heavy bombardment Sunday.

The United States joined its allies and the United Nations in “strongly condemning” the violence by “a small group of extremists determined to destabilize the democratic, multiethnic government of Macedonia,” said a statement released late Friday by the White House.

Washington, which has “a long-standing commitment to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Macedonia,” offered to help the Balkan nation improve its military.

Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, in a weekend telephone conversation with Macedonia’s president, Boris Trajkovski, said the United States and its NATO allies stand ready to “assist in improving their military capabilities where necessary and supporting their efforts to bolster a democratic, multiethnic state,” the State Department said.

Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld, however, made clear last week that the United States would not send troops to help Macedonia, which has a majority Slav population.

Many analysts believe that troops are not needed--yet. For now, U.S. intervention might require only high-profile diplomacy.

“This is not Kosovo or Bosnia. This is a rebellion led by maybe no more than 1,000 guys,” said Ivo Daalder, a former State Department expert now at the Brookings Institution.

“There hasn’t been ethnic cleansing. And Albanians, who make up about 25% of the 2 million population, have been represented in every Macedonian government since 1992. So the parties have an institutional basis to alleviate minority problems. The solutions are out there.”

But any of three factors could lead to a breakdown, analysts warn.

The fighting, which remains limited to battles between security forces and insurgents, could spread to the general public. The army, which is 40% ethnic Albanian, hasn’t fallen apart yet. And no ethnic faction has walked out of parliament, though one of two Albanian parties on Sunday suspended its participation to protest what it called the army’s aggression.

“Once those things happen, then it’ll take an enormous international commitment, and we still may not be able to put Humpty Dumpty together again,” Serwer said.

Another problem is that Macedonia’s forces don’t have the capability or training to conduct an effective operation against the rebels, analysts say. And the government’s tactics may backfire. Predominantly Slavic Macedonian troops are now shooting at ethnic Albanian Muslim rebels and shelling villages.

“These are not good ways to defeat guerrillas or to get people on your side. This will only divide the population further and deepen the crisis,” Daalder said.

Regional Instability Is a Growing Threat

At each stage, analysts say, the dangers of spillover increase, first by emboldening extremists in Bosnia and the Yugoslav republic of Serbia, who are now lying low because of NATO and U.N. peacekeepers, and then by creating regional instability with a ripple effect on Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria.

As the old state of Yugoslavia has crumbled into conflict, the United States has repeatedly been forced to take the initiative when others refused. The Clinton administration even mediated among ethnic Albanians in Macedonia to prevent extremists from gaining greater support for their cause and to encourage moderation among Albanian leaders.

Then-Secretary of State Madeleine Albright helped persuade Hashim Thaci, former commander of the now-disbanded Kosovo Liberation Army, to distance himself from Albanian extremists, according to former U.S. officials. Thaci last week appealed to ethnic Albanians in Macedonia to end their uprising and called on rebels from Kosovo there to come home.

But the Bush administration has eliminated the position of special U.S. envoy to the Balkans. It has also resisted pleas to do more diplomatically. Meanwhile, Macedonia has made clear publicly and privately that it would like to see more than words.

By not mediating or shoring up security now, the United States will almost certainly be forced to play the preeminent role again at some point, whether it wants to or not, U.S. and European analysts predict.

“We will send U.S. troops. The only question is when and for how long,” Daalder said.

“If the fighting continues, then institutions collapse and hatreds increase and attitudes harden. There’s only a small window of opportunity now, or we’ll play a much higher price down the road,” he added.

Engaging the Albanian Community Is Key

The problem is not just the extremists. Many of the hard-core fighters are unlikely to stop even if the U.S. intervenes, analysts say.

The real issue is what the majority will support--the extremists or a broader negotiated political solution. And only the United States can talk to the broader Albanian community, because Washington mobilized Europe and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in 1999 to stand up to Yugoslavia’s campaign of “ethnic cleansing” against Albanians in Kosovo, a Serbian province.

“We’re the only ones who can engage all parties with credibility. And this is now a problem that requires a political solution covering the security interests of Serbia, Macedonia and Kosovo,” said James O’Brien, U.S. special envoy to the Balkans during the Clinton administration.

“The European Union is too disparate. And the Albanians fear that the Europeans fear them” because of their Muslim faith, he added.

American mediation to defuse the crisis would also give Washington sufficient leverage to pressure Macedonia and Serbia to deal with their discrimination problems, analysts say.

So far, however, the Bush administration does not seem to consider Macedonia vital to American strategic interests, though analysts maintain that it should be.

“For 10 years, Macedonia has been the most successful experiment in the Balkans in keeping together a small multiethnic state in a democratic environment. It has also been a loyal ally of the United States as it struggled with problems nearby, including taking in 350,000 refugees during the Kosovo crisis,” said Henryk J. Sokalski, a former U.N. assistant secretary-general who led the U.N. Preventive Deployment Force in Macedonia.

“Unfortunately, it has not received aid commensurate with its efforts. The United States should have been more involved from the beginning because every day of fighting will end up costing U.S. long-term interests in a stable Europe.”

Balkan Country Once Seen as Important

Analysts point out that Bush’s father recognized Macedonia’s importance.

“Even former President Bush, who let Bosnia burn 10 years ago, was ready to act over Macedonia then. In 1992, the Bush administration issued a Christmas warning over Kosovo that was related directly to Macedonia, for fear if it blew then Kosovo would follow. It supported deployment of U.N. troops in Macedonia as a deterrent,” Daalder said. U.N. troops were deployed there from 1993 to 1999, until a Chinese veto in the Security Council defeated renewal of the mandate.