Economic Data Expected to Point to Slowdown

Data this week on retail sales and unemployment claims will probably point to a slowing economy in the second quarter, analysts said.

Although a Commerce Department report is likely to show retail sales increased 0.2% in April, the gain would follow a decrease of 0.2% in March. Retail sales numbers help gauge consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of economic activity.

Labor markets influence spending, and unemployment lines are lengthening. New jobless-benefit claims will probably come in at 416,000 in the week ended May 5, analysts said.

That would be the third consecutive week that claims exceeded 400,000. Claims hadn’t exceeded that level for five years until last month.

“The economy may now be--after months of speculation--at the edge of a recession,” said Scott Brown, economist at brokerage Raymond James & Associates in St. Petersburg, Fla.

The Commerce Department will issue the retail sales statistics Friday. The Labor Department will release the jobless claims figure on Thursday.

In other economic reports this week:

* Today, the Fed is expected to report that consumer borrowing via credit cards and auto loans probably slowed in March. A $9.5-billion net increase in consumer credit outstanding was likely during March after a gain of $13.5 billion in February, analysts said.

* Tuesday, the Labor Department is expected to report that worker productivity gains cooled in the first quarter. Analysts estimate productivity rose at a 1% annual rate.

In the fourth quarter, productivity increased at a 2.2% pace. Productivity typically slows along with the economy.

* Also Tuesday, the Commerce Department is expected to report that inventories at the nation’s wholesalers inched up 0.1% in March after falling 0.1% in February, analysts said. Reported sales also are expected to be up.