Riding High in Polls, Blair Sets June Vote

By MARJORIE MILLER

May 9, 2001 12 AM PT

TIMES STAFF WRITER

LONDON —

British Prime Minister Tony Blair on Tuesday launched his bid for a second term, calling a June 7 national election that he hopes will yield a landslide victory for his Labor Party to match its triumph four years ago.

Riding a robust economy and a commanding lead in the polls, Blair had been expected to call the vote for May 3 but was forced to postpone it because of a nationwide foot-and-mouth epidemic among livestock.

With the outbreak declared “under control” last week, the announcement was a foregone conclusion. Blair tipped his hand by calling a special Cabinet meeting during a national holiday Monday. On Tuesday afternoon, he made the required trip from 10 Downing St. to Buckingham Palace to ask Queen Elizabeth II to dissolve Parliament so that an election can be held.

The prime minister broke with tradition by announcing the election to students at a London girls school, rather than to the media on the steps of his official residence. He asked for a new mandate.

“Four years has given us the chance to build foundations, but now the work has to go on. There is a lot done, there is a lot more to do, and there is a lot at stake in this election,” Blair told the students at St. Savior’s and St. Olave’s Church of England secondary school in south London.

Speaking as much to his own party as to his audience--the majority of the students are too young to vote--Blair said: “Every vote in this election is precious. No one’s support should ever be assumed. That is the strength of our democracy.

“We earned the trust of the people in 1997 after 18 long years of opposition. Today we have to earn that trust again. I stand before you today with a sense both of humility and of hope,” he said.

Parliament will be dissolved Monday, and the parties have less than a month to campaign.

Polls consistently show the Labor Party with a lead of 17 to 23 percentage points over the opposition Conservative Party, headed by William Hague.

Blair has warned his election troops against voter apathy in the face of such numbers, but Market & Opinion Research International pollster Bob Worcester said Tuesday that it is virtually “inconceivable” that Hague will be prime minister come June. He said Blair simply is seeking “the biggest thumping majority he could get, just as Margaret Thatcher did in 1983.”

Other political analysts, however, note that the polls have overestimated Labor’s support in the past and that backing for the party masks another finding: The public is far less enthusiastic about Blair today than it was four years ago.

Fortunately for Blair, polls suggest that Hague is more unpopular. The Tory leader has failed to capitalize on the government’s perceived bumbling of the foot-and-mouth outbreak, high fuel prices, major flooding and Labor Cabinet crises, such as the dismissal of Blair aide Peter Mandelson in a scandal.

But Hague insisted Tuesday that he is confident of victory. He launched his Conservative campaign promising to be tough on crime, to lower taxes and to keep Britain out of the common European currency.

“When Tony Blair called the election this afternoon, he wasn’t so much running on his record as running away from his record, not so much asking for a second term as asking for a second chance,” Hague said.

The Conservatives have launched a snappy campaign ad showing Blair’s head on a heavily pregnant body, proudly patting his bump. It says: “Four years of Labor and he still hasn’t delivered.”

The leader of the Liberal Democrats, Charles Kennedy, said he is “raring to go” with a campaign seeking tax increases to fund more public spending, particularly on education. He has promised to wage a positive campaign.

Blair kicked off a campaign that he hopes to keep focused on domestic issues with his education secretary, David Blunkett, by his side. Blair has promised to improve the National Health Service and other public services. Labor also is laying down tough guidelines for immigrants seeking asylum in Britain and calling for harsher jail sentences for criminals.

Blair wants to keep the issue of the euro out of the campaign because polls show that 70% of Britons want to keep the pound. He supports Britain’s joining the common European currency if economic conditions are right.

His critics within Labor and on the left have said he should campaign for Britain’s integration into Europe, including adoption of the euro, and show how divided the Tories are over the issue. But Blair avoided the topic Tuesday. He sought to stake his claim on a second term on the need to finish a job well begun.

“No government of change, in any country I can think of, has done it all in one program, one budget or one term,” he said.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

British Elections

The British will vote June 7 in national elections for the first time since 1997. Here is what is at stake:

Seats in House of Commons: 659

Votes needed for a majority: 330

Popular vote in last election

Labor: 43.2%

Conservatives: 30.7%

Liberal Democrats: 16.8%

Current House of Commons seats

Labor: 417