Cholesterol Guidelines May Boost Drug Sales
Aggressive government guidelines announced Tuesday for treating people at risk for heart disease should fatten sales of cholesterol-lowering medications, already a $16-billion business.
The number of people being treated for high cholesterol should nearly triple under the new guidelines, to 36 million from 13 million, the National Institutes of Health said.
But the potential increase in sales is even greater, according to one pharmaceutical executive, because patients will need higher doses of medication to lower their cholesterol to the new treatment standard.
C. Anthony Butler, pharmaceutical industry analyst for Lehman Bros. in New York, said his previous estimate that sales would grow to $27 billion by 2005 now appears conservative.
“I don’t think anyone anticipated how large the [change] would be,” he said.
What percentage of the new market drug makers actually capture is anybody’s guess. Butler said doctors take the guidelines very seriously.
But Dr. Rob Scott, vice president of the cardiovascular division of Pfizer Inc., said only 50% of people who needed cholesterol-lowering medication under the old guidelines actually used it. What’s more, he said, the majority of people on the drugs took too low a dose to bring their cholesterol within optimal levels.
“One thing we know is that dose is not being increased enough under the more achievable goals,” Scott said. “It will be even more difficult to meet the new, more aggressive goal.”
Pfizer makes the best-selling cholesterol drug, Lipitor, with 52% of prescriptions. It is followed by Merck & Co.’s Zocor, with 23% of the market. Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.’s Pravachol is third, with 14% of prescriptions.
The new guidelines raise the stakes in a business where competition was already about to heat up.
AstraZeneca is on track to launch a new cholesterol-lowering medication next year. Analysts said research shows AstraZeneca’s new drug is slightly better at lowering cholesterol than the existing medications.
But in a survey conducted by Lehman Brothers, doctors indicated a reluctance to switch patients to a new medication. They said they might prescribe AstraZeneca’s new drug for no more than three of 10 new patients.
The new guidelines translate those estimates into larger total sales for AstraZeneca, even at a small initial market share.
The guidelines also come at an opportune time for Bristol-Myers. Though it is third in the anti-cholesterol market, Pravachol is the company’s second best-selling drug next to Glucophage, the diabetes medication that came off patent in March. Sales of Pravachol are expected to reach $2 billion this year--a figure that could receive a sizable boost as a result of the new government treatment recommendations, even if Pravachol’s market share remains stable.
UCLA marketing professor Carol Scott said drug makers aren’t likely to boost their advertising, as the cholesterol drugs already are heavily marketed. But she said it’s likely they will modify their ads to alert consumers to the new guidelines.
Representatives of Pfizer and Bristol-Myers said Tuesday that they had no immediate plans to change their consumer advertising. But they were preparing to change marketing materials they provide to doctors.
The news, though good for drug makers, isn’t exactly heart-warming for insurance companies, which will end up paying for the drugs.
The government’s announcement came before the stock market closed. Pfizer shares declined 34 cents to close at $42.97. Merck closed down 79 cents at $75.90, and Bristol-Myers Squibb closed up 32 cents at $56.25.
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By the Numbers
Here is the average U.S. market share for cholesterol-lowering drugs for January to September 2000. The sector is expected to become even more profitable under new federal guidelines:
*
Lipitor (Pfizer): 52%
Zocor (Merck): 23%
Pravachol (Bristol-Myers Squibb): 14%
Other: 11%
Source: Quintiles Transnational
