In Indonesia, a Shaky President Is Still Scrappy

When President Abdurrahman Wahid was elected 19 months ago, he represented this country’s best chance at democracy in half a century of independence.

Now, as he faces corruption allegations and threats of removal from office, it appears that the nearly blind and unpredictable Muslim leader will do almost anything to keep his job.

Alternately bullying and cajoling, Wahid has threatened to dissolve parliament, declare a state of emergency and rule by martial law if parliament proceeds with its attempt to oust him. He also has offered to share power with his rivals, although few regard the gesture as sincere.

The maneuvering has plunged Indonesia into a political crisis and distracted the government from the serious problems it faces: the threat of economic meltdown, constant warfare in the provinces and the tragic looting of the nation’s natural resources.

Monday, in his latest move, Wahid issued a decree ordering his security chief to take all steps necessary to uphold order, but he stopped short of declaring a civil emergency and disbanding parliament.

“I have ordered the security minister to take action and special steps to coordinate the functions of all the security forces to overcome the crisis and uphold order, security and law immediately,” Wahid said in his edict.

Events are likely to come to a head Wednesday, when parliament is expected to vote against Wahid and take the third of four constitutional steps needed to remove him from his post as president of the world’s fourth-most-populous nation.

If it votes against Wahid, the parliament would convene the 700-member People’s Consultative Assembly, the country’s highest constitutional body, which includes all 500 members of parliament. It elected Wahid in 1999 and has the power to cast him out.

Wahid maintains that parliament has exceeded its authority by moving to oust him for his alleged involvement in the theft of $4.1 million from a government agency and for not properly reporting a $2-million aid donation from the sultan of Brunei.

Wahid denies any wrongdoing and argues that the accusations should first be heard in court. There was no conclusive evidence in parliament’s findings that Wahid profited personally from either deal.

Indonesia’s attorney general, a Wahid appointee, conducted his own investigation and cleared the president of both charges Monday.

“Why is there the possibility of a state of emergency?” the president said during a news conference Saturday. “Because the parliament has gone beyond its task based on the constitution.”

Wahid has repeatedly warned that his supporters would turn violent and parts of the country would declare independence if he was removed from office. Some of his backers rioted Monday in East Java and called for the death of his political foes.

Wahid is the former head of Nahdlatul Ulama, the biggest Muslim organization in the world. He is known as a clever political tactician who managed to win the presidency even though his party received only 10% of the popular vote for parliament.

Now, however, the frail 60-year-old president is so isolated politically that the armed forces and parliament could ignore a martial law decree if he issued one.

In part, Wahid’s isolation is a result of his virtual blindness from diabetes. While his eyes can sense light, he is unable to read briefing papers or see the charts and graphs that might help him understand the critical state of the economy. He also is unable to read the expressions on the faces of his aides and ministers, whom he must trust to carry out his policies.

Wahid, who had at least two strokes before he became president, also suffers from sleep apnea. Unable to sleep more than five hours a night despite wearing an oxygen mask, he is famous for dozing off during high-profile public meetings.

The president insists that he is in good enough health to continue in office, although some question whether he is as sharp as he once was.

Earlier this month, while parliament deliberated whether to censure him a second time for his alleged role in the corruption scandals, aides said he rested and listened to classical music.

Asked in a recent interview with Newsweek magazine about parliament’s two highly publicized votes to censure him this year, Wahid said he had been censured only once--until his own aide corrected him.

It has been three years since former dictator Suharto was forced to step down in the wake of Indonesia’s 1997 economic collapse. Few Indonesians would say their lives have improved much since then.

Critics say Wahid is little concerned about the traumatic events plaguing his country. Asked what the president’s vision is for Indonesia, one source close to him replied, “Making the country into a big power in the geopolitical game,” then quickly added, “and prosperity for the people.”

Today, the government is facing a budget shortfall and may soon have difficulty paying its bills. In addition, more than $4 billion in foreign debt comes due this year. The International Monetary Fund has refused to release $400 million in loans until the government cleans house at the central bank.

The rupiah has lost 40% of its value against the dollar since Wahid took office, with much of the decline having occurred this year along with the political crisis.

The central bank has raised interest rates to more than 16% to support the rupiah, stifling investment. The budget pinch has put the government in the politically difficult position of proposing 20% to 30% hikes in fuel prices, which would surely touch off widespread protest.

Despite the mounting problems, one former presidential aide said Wahid has no interest in the economy.

“He’s very good at tactics, but he doesn’t seem to comprehend that what he’s doing is not good for the people,” the former aide said.

When Wahid took office, he declared that the rebellious province of Aceh had the right to a referendum on its independence, but that has never materialized. Instead, he has sent troops to fight the separatists there with a brutality that matches the viciousness of the Suharto era.

Wahid’s government has done little to halt religious violence between Muslims and Christians in the Molucca Islands, which has killed 5,000 people and driven more than 500,000 from their homes.

When Dayak headhunters began slaughtering at least 500 Madurese settlers in the Indonesian part of Borneo in February, Wahid minimized the violence and accused Western journalists on the scene of exaggerating the death toll.

Similarly, Wahid has shown little interest in environmental protection. Fishermen who use explosives and cyanide to catch fish are rapidly destroying some of the world’s most spectacular coral reefs. Illegal logging in Borneo, Sumatra and other islands has reached epic proportions. Orangutans and other species are in danger of extinction as their habitat is destroyed.

Wahid’s desire to stay in office has prompted him to propose various compromises, including a power-sharing deal with Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri, whom he defeated for the presidency in 1999 even though her party won more votes than any other.

The two have an unusual relationship: They call each other brother and sister, and Wahid has breakfast at Megawati’s house every Wednesday. But as leader of the largest faction in parliament, she has the power to push him out of office and take over.

The daughter of former President Sukarno, she has been reluctant to come to power in the same way Suharto pushed her father aside in 1965. At the same time, she has become increasingly annoyed with Wahid’s antics and has allowed both censure votes in parliament to go forward.

Wahid’s most recent proposal would allow Megawati to select the members of the Cabinet and run the government on a day-to-day basis. But many details of the offer remain unresolved, such as who would be commander in chief of the armed forces and who would have the power to issue presidential decrees.

Wahid’s backers acknowledge that his strategy is to let Megawati take the helm at a critical time without the full powers of the presidency. Then, if she failed to unite the country, Wahid could step in again in a year or so and reassert his authority.

So far, Megawati has refused to go along with his latest proposal, setting the stage for the vote Wednesday on whether to convene the People’s Consultative Assembly for a special session by August.

If she does not change her mind, the question for Wahid then becomes whether to let the vote proceed or declare martial law and dissolve parliament before lawmakers have a chance to act.

In a bizarre twist, Wahid and his allies say the grounds for declaring a state of emergency would include the likelihood of mass violence by the president’s supporters if parliament moved to oust him.

“We don’t want to have either a special session or a state of emergency,” said presidential spokesman Adhi Massardi. “But if we have to choose, then the civil state of emergency would be more effective. With the special session, the situation would be uncontrollable.”

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Sari Sudarsono of The Times’ Jakarta Bureau contributed to this report.