State Handgun Sales Head for a Record Low

Despite a surge in gun sales since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, handgun purchases in California are on pace to be the lowest in three decades.

As of Oct. 31, about 123,000 handguns were sold in the state, a 20% decline from the same nine-month period in 2000, according to California Department of Justice records.

If the current rate holds, handgun sales in 2001 could shatter the record low of 189,481 in 1998. The highest year was 1993, when the Los Angeles riots helped drive up sales to 433,822.

The specter of hijacked airliners flying into buildings and anthrax-tainted letters did boost sales in the last two months, but not nearly as much as previous societal traumas.

Since the Sept. 11 attacks, sales of all guns--handguns, rifles and shotguns--have averaged roughly 9,000 a week, about 25% higher than the same period a year earlier, said Mike Van Winkle, a Department of Justice spokesman. But during the riot years of the early 1990s, gun sales averaged about 11,500 a week.

“We know that outside events and crises can affect gun sales,” Van Winkel said. During the recent crisis, sales peaked about a month after the Sept. 11 attacks and dropped to about 8,000 weapons a week toward the end of October.

Advocates of gun rights brushed aside this year’s overall slower pace as a cyclical quirk of a downshifting marketplace.

“Gun sales are like any other consumer product,” said Ed Worley, state liaison for the National Rifle Assn. “They trend with the economy.”

And he believes the events of Sept. 11 will continue to boost sales. “All I know,” Worley said, “is that every gun store owner I’ve talked to says they’re having a hard time keeping handguns on the shelf.”

But gun-control boosters contend the overall slower sales rate so far in 2001 demonstrates that tougher laws and a new ethos are taking hold.

“The increase we’re seeing the last few weeks is very temporary,” said Luis Tolley of the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence. “The trends are hugely down. It’s a bell curve. We peaked in the early ‘90s, then dropped.”

Several factors have come into play, he said.

Tougher gun laws, particularly in California, have slowed sales of some types of weapons. Lawsuits against gun manufacturers have hamstrung the handgun industry. Meanwhile, the repeated traumas of schoolyard shootings, and the resulting avalanches of media coverage, have jostled public opinion.

The overall demographic shifts in society have also affected gun ownership. As the state has continued its century-long march toward suburbanization, the gun-oriented hunting culture of California’s rural corners has eroded. Studies consistently show that rural areas harbor the biggest enclaves of gun supporters, while large cities average fewer firearms owners.

California’s ever more cosmopolitan face also comes into play. Gun owners tend to be white and male, research has shown. Latinos and ethnic minorities tend to be more favorable toward gun-control laws, according to a 1999 study by the University of Chicago’s National Opinion Research Center.

That same study found that gun ownership nationwide has shrunk from about 47% of households in 1973 to under 36% in 1999.

Though the percentage of households with guns has declined, the number of guns per household has risen. In California, Tolley said, the average is about half a dozen in a typical gun-owning household.

Although handgun sales have declined in recent years, sales of long guns--rifles and shotguns--have held steady, said Van Winkle of the Justice Department. Over the last decade, the peak of 268,849 long guns sold came in 1999, he said, when looming assault rifle restrictions and Y2K fears combined to drive up sales of such weapons.

Aside from the assault rifle law, recent gun-control regulations in California include restrictions on Saturday night specials and other inexpensive handguns as well as sales limits of one handgun a month.

But even in the face of softer sales and constant pressure from foes, firearms advocates such as Worley remain confident that the industry and enthusiasts share a bright future.

Membership in the NRA, he said, is higher than ever, 4.4 million nationwide. In California, the group has scored some recent legislative victories. Worley’s prime exhibit: the NRA’s defeat of a proposal that would have boosted gun-licensing requirements and fees.

“Luis Tolley can beat his chest and play every game he wants,” Worley said. “But there already are 675 gun laws in California. What else can they mess with?”