Grocers Offering Fewer Price Trimmings This Thanksgiving

With more people expected to stay home this Thanksgiving, supermarkets are gearing up for an economic feast, stocking more sweet potatoes, pumpkin pies and bigger birds too. But that also means consumers will see fewer free turkeys and steep discounts.

With strong sales projected, supermarkets are not feeling compelled to offer the same huge discounts on turkey and other items that they did in years past, farm economists said. Indeed, the average price of the Thanksgiving feast for 10--turkey, all the trimmings and dessert--is expected to rise $2.67 to $35.04, according to a survey released Friday by the American Farm Bureau Federation.

Some of that increase comes from a bump in turkey prices. The per-pound cost of a frozen 16-pound bird increased an average of 17 cents to 95 cents in the nationwide survey of supermarket prices.

Similarly, prices for sweet potatoes, frozen peas and dairy products such as milk and whipping cream were higher than last year.

Most stores are still offering some kind of turkey deal to lure shoppers into their stores, but not as much as in years past. Stater Bros.’ 49-cent-per-pound price for a Butterball frozen turkey is break-even for the chain.

Orders for Stater Bros.’ prepared holiday dinners have doubled from last year, and the prospect of bigger family dinners has the chain offering a “giant” turkey dinner this year with a 22-pound bird and 7-pound side dishes.

Economists said supermarket chains don’t have to do much discounting this year to get customers into their stores. Sales have been rising steadily for most chains as terrorist events have made people want to eat more meals at home. A spike in home entertaining during the holidays is expected to drive sales up even further.

“We believe this will be one of the best Thanksgivings we have seen in many years,” said Terry O’Neil, a spokesman for Ralphs.

Ralphs is offering the same deal it had last year, a free house-brand holiday turkey with a minimum purchase of $75 or $10 off any other fresh or frozen turkey.

Vons isn’t offering a free turkey with purchase. Instead, it is selling frozen hen turkeys for $3.99 and tom turkeys for $5.99.

No one will know for sure how sweet holiday food sales will be until after this weekend, when most of the shopping will be done. Stater Bros. Markets President Jack Brown estimates that year-end sales could surge as much as 15% above last year at his 155-store chain.

Turkey producers, however, said that although business is good for supermarkets, sales and prices appear to be roughly the same for them as last year. “We’re not going to see any huge change,” said Bob Zacky, president of El Monte-based Zacky Farms Inc. Much of the bump, he said, will come in sales of fresh turkeys, which are becoming more popular each year.

Turkey is expected to be at the center of the plate on more than 92% of holiday dinners this year as a new back-to-basics mentality has swept the nation. “People are going back to traditions....They are doing what their parents and grandparents did,” National Turkey Federation spokeswoman Sherrie Rosenblatt said.