Leave the Afghans Better Off

The war on terrorism is showing similarities to the Cold War, with anti-terrorism replacing anti-communism. After a decade-long hiatus, the United States is back in the business of supporting rebel groups and making use of authoritarian regimes such as those of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. This time, there’s a chance to reach a better balance between means and ends.

A U.S.-brokered accord has already brought together a fragile anti-Taliban force. It includes the Northern Alliance rebels and the former monarch, 86-year-old Mohammed Zahir Shah, in European exile for 28 years. His supporters cannot be of military help. The apparent aim of the Bush administration is to let the rebels carry the load of ousting a weakened Taliban and tracking down Osama bin Laden and his followers inside Afghanistan.

The Northern Alliance has its price: It has asked for $50 million a month in aid. Its representatives state that the U.S. will not be able to track down Bin Laden without rebel assistance, which may be true. They also state that Afghanistan would be a much more tolerant country under alliance leadership, which is more questionable.

The Bush administration has little choice for now but to back the once-marginal Northern Alliance. For the long term, the administration must not walk away and let rebel factions battle it out, as happened in Afghanistan after 1989, with dire results. The alliance, which was dislodged from power by the Taliban in 1996, is distrusted by many Afghans and is composed of minority ethnic groups, predominantly Uzbeks and Tajiks. Supporters of the elderly king are politically weak, but they offer representation of the dominant Pushtuns and are respected.

The modern tragedy of Afghanistan begins with the Soviet-sponsored coup of 1978 and the Soviet invasion the next year. Outside powers, whether the Soviets, the United States or Pakistan, fueled civil conflicts. As the U.S. steps up pressure against the Taliban, it should scrutinize the sums it sends to rebels and the weaponry they receive. Even $10 million a month would be a large amount for the rebels to manage usefully; $50 million is out of the question.

The Northern Alliance and the former monarch have agreed to convene a 120-member Supreme Council for National Unity in Rome this month in order to create a transitional government. A United Nations-sponsored conference could take place once the Taliban has been ousted, with the aim of preventing further outside aid to any single faction.

There is no guarantee that Afghanistan would be more peaceful or better governed with the Taliban gone. However, attempts to bring together disparate opposition groups are the right alternative to reckless long-term arming of rebel forces.