Growth Pains for O.C.

Growth, that two-pronged force that propelled Orange County from a sleepy, suburban bedroom community in the 1950s to today’s fourth-most-populated county in the nation, has always prompted a love-hate response from residents.

This year, it seems, the love of what growth has brought loses out. At least that’s what the new UC Irvine annual survey strongly shows. It’s understandable, even if the sudden shift of concern from crime is somewhat surprising.

Crime led last year’s poll and has been high on the list for several years. But it dropped to sixth in the order of what residents think are the most important issues facing the county today.

Growth-related issues strongly dominated the top four concerns. Population growth and development received a 21% response, followed by the El Toro land controversy, housing, and traffic and transportation. Crime was seen as the most important issue by only 5% of the respondents.

In a disappointing showing of public concern with problems of poverty, the poor, homeless and welfare were at a combined 1%. And even the growth-related preoccupations of the majority suggested they arose from personal interest for economics and convenience.

When asked to name the most negative consequences of the county’s growth, 37% of respondents said high housing costs and 31% cited traffic congestion. Only 11% saw pollution as the most serious fallout from the county’s continued growth.

Roller-coaster reactions to the rush to land development and the benefits it promised have been part of residents’ concern and controversy since the mid-1950s, when the Santa Ana Freeway pushed into Orange County and opened it to major development, starting with Disneyland.

The boom years continued through the 1970s, but in the 1980s some residents began feeling the pressures of urbanization, and sentiment to apply the brakes started to build. In San Clemente, voters passed a measure restricting residential building permits to 500 a year. The slow-growth movement culminated in a 1988 countywide ballot measure that linked new development to acceptable levels of traffic and services. It was defeated.

But the anti-growth sentiment hasn’t died. Last year there were four ballot initiatives in three cities aimed at severely restricting development. The one that passed in Newport Beach triggers a citywide vote on any proposed project that would result in a “major amendment” to the city’s general plan.

That sentiment is evident in the latest survey. “For the first time in more than a decade, Orange County residents are saying growth and growth-related issues are the problems,” said Mark Baldassare, executive director of the Public Policy Institute of California. The institute conducted the survey with UCI’s School of Social Ecology.

Looking ahead to the next 20 years or so, all factors indicate that continued growth is inevitable. The population is projected to increase from today’s nearly 2.9 million to about 3.5 million by 2020. About half a million new jobs are expected by 2025. What’s so disquieting about these projections is that many of today’s residents see themselves as victims--not beneficiaries--of that kind of growth.

When asked by UCI’s survey if they thought the population growth would make the county a better place to live, two of every three people said no.

The problem is finding the balance of advantages and drawbacks that come with growth. The county enjoys the benefits urbanization has brought. Opera. Theater. Art exhibits. Concerts. Sporting events. Universities. More jobs and higher incomes. And some of the finest shopping and dining facilities anywhere.

But it suffers the congested city streets and slower, traffic-choked freeways, high housing costs and continuing construction with the increasing urban runoff, pollution and beach closures that more people bring. Adding to their negative outlook is the lack of confidence expressed by most residents in the ability of county officials to solve the problems.

So the question facing the county is not whether there should be more growth. The reality is that more growth is inevitable. What residents must decide are issues such as: whether to use more rail transit and other approaches to easing traffic congestion; what to do with the 4,700-acre former El Toro Marine base; which elected officials are best able to lead the county in the coming critical years. The challenge is in the hard choices that must be made to be sure that continued growth doesn’t outrun the county’s ability to support it.