More Than a ‘Second Chance’

President Bush’s offer to end military attacks on Afghanistan in exchange for Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaeda network was a calculated move to shore up coalition support and play on growing rifts within the ruling Taliban movement over the cost of harboring the Saudi fugitive, U.S. officials said Friday.

The “second chance” offer, made by Bush during a news conference Thursday, was designed as a catalyst--and incentive--to provoke challenges to Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar, the officials said.

“If, by some stroke of magic, the Taliban delivered Bin Laden and closed the Al Qaeda camps, then the U.S. agenda would certainly change,” said a senior State Department official, who requested anonymity. “The president’s message is that it’s never too late to repent.”

To spread the word, the Voice of America on Friday broadcast the president’s offer, which could play on long-standing differences within the strict Islamic organization that has ruled most of Afghanistan for five years.

“The Taliban has always been a collection of groups rather than a homogenous . . . movement,” said a senior Bush administration official who also requested anonymity. “There’s been a lot of disagreement with Sheik Omar for a long time, particularly over Bin Laden. So it would not be surprising at all to see some key people say that ‘this is insane, we’re tied to something that is going to destroy our country.’ ”

Some news reports emerged Friday from the region that Taliban Foreign Minister Wakil Ahmed Mutawakel was among those turning against the leadership and that he might consider an effort to make a deal with Washington. But U.S. officials said they had no firsthand knowledge of such high-level dissent.

U.S. officials made clear Friday that they have no illusions about the prospects of Omar giving up Bin Laden, despite the U.S. air assaults on Afghanistan that began Sunday. Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld gave a flat “no” when asked if he thought it was possible.

“We’d be interested in encouraging factionalism within the Taliban,” said the State Department official, “but we’re not counting on that to get our man. We’re not holding our breath.”

Still, U.S. officials also hope that Bush’s proposal will serve as a useful public relations move that signals to allies, particularly among Arab and Muslim countries, that the administration would prefer to find a peaceful resolution to the standoff. The most fragile element within the wide coalition battling terrorism includes Islamic states concerned about public sympathy toward Bin Laden’s message--and about potential backlash as the U.S.-led military campaign continues.

Bush’s gesture came on the eve of the first Muslim Sabbath since the bombing campaign began. On Friday, the administration closely monitored public reaction for signs of escalating anti-U.S. demonstrations that might in turn force cracks in the coalition.

In Asia, Muslims in Indonesia and Sri Lanka burned U.S. flags at protests, while Malaysian police used water cannons to disperse about 3,000 demonstrators, some of whom waved “Go to Hell America” placards outside the U.S. Embassy.

In the Middle East, a group of Muslims in the Lebanese port city of Tripoli cheered Bin Laden and jeered the United States, while Turkish riot police fired tear gas to break up a crowd of about 2,000 Muslims who called for Turkey to condemn the U.S. airstrikes.

So far, these and similar demonstrations have been contained by each country’s government.

Bush’s offer to the Taliban may provide cover for some of the governments that want to support the U.S. but face vociferous opposition at home, said Henri Barkey, a former State Department official who dealt with terrorism issues and is now at Lehigh University.

Among those it could help is Pakistan’s president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, who had promised a restive population that the U.S. would wage only a short conflict. He now could say the duration of the U.S. military operation, which Bush said Thursday could last two years, is the fault of the Taliban, Barkey said.

Bush’s offer also provides new incentive for cooperation to other nations suspected of helping the terrorist cause, Barkey said.

“Essentially, it sends a message that if you harbor terrorists and you cough them up, you’ll get an amnesty,” he said.