Turkmenistan Relishes Neutral Status

War rages on the other side of this nation’s 500-mile border with Afghanistan, but for Turkmenistan this is a month of both commemoration and celebration.

On Oct. 6, the insular nation held its annual ceremony remembering a 1948 earthquake that flattened this capital and killed 110,000 people. And come Oct. 27, the nation will mark the 10th anniversary of its independence from the former Soviet Union. President Saparmurad A. Niyazov has decreed a 10-day public holiday, and it appears that he has no intention of letting the war in Afghanistan get in the way of grandiose celebrations.

Some might wonder what the Turkmen have to celebrate. Living standards have deteriorated rapidly since independence, with about 70% of the population now living below the poverty line.

Still, Turkmenistan has managed to avoid many of the troubles that have afflicted other former Soviet republics of Central Asia. Tajikistan went through a civil war between government forces and Islamic militants that cost more than 50,000 lives. Uzbekistan lives with the threat of--and occasional military actions by--the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan.

But this largely desert land of about 4.5 million people has managed--like a North Korea of Central Asia--to hold to an isolated course through the sea of troubles that surrounds it.

“Our president is a friend to everybody,” explained a twentysomething cab driver who gave his name as Guvanch, as he strolled across Ashgabat’s central square. “He didn’t help the Americans. That’s why we don’t have any problems here.”

Behind Guvanch looms a 220-foot Arch of Neutrality. It is a symbol of the country’s policy of isolation, which is mainly aimed at countering the potentially domineering influences of Russia, Uzbekistan and Iran. The latter’s northern border lies about 20 miles from Ashgabat.

Atop the great arch is a revolving 35-foot golden statue of Niyazov. His arms are raised to usher in the sun at dawn and bid it farewell at dusk. It is a typical expression of a common refrain: that he is the embodiment of the soul of the Turkmen people.

Niyazov was the Communist leader of the Turkmen Soviet Socialist Republic, and was elected president of the newly independent state in 1992 with the supposed blessing of 99.5% of the voters. He has since adopted the title of turkmenbashi, or “leader of all Turkmen.” Giant posters of him adorn buildings across the country, his face is on every bank note, and a growing number of streets, towns, squares and airports are named after him.

The “great leader” has expressed general support for international steps against terrorists in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks. But in contrast to Uzbekistan, where American troops from the 10th Mountain Division have taken up positions, Turkmenistan has made it clear that its bases are not available for military operations in the U.S.-declared war on terrorism.

Turkmenistan has opened its doors enough, however, to allow United Nations agencies to run northern Afghanistan relief operations out of its territory. Many of these agencies pulled their foreign staff out of Afghanistan after Sept. 11 and have set up cross-border operations to move emergency aid from the eastern city of Turkmenabad to Andkhvoy in northern Afghanistan.

However, this increased humanitarian activity is likely to be the only major change Turkmenistan sees, unless the Afghan conflict takes some entirely unexpected turn.

There are no private newspapers or broadcasters here, and the state media reveal little or nothing of events in Afghanistan or anywhere else in the world. On the third night of last week’s U.S. airstrikes on Afghanistan, for example, the evening television news show began with an account of Niyazov’s movements that day. Then came a report on the cotton harvest, followed by a piece on upgrading a desert pipeline. Afghanistan was not mentioned.

News of the world can be picked up from other sources, such as Russian television and radio, and people are apprehensive about the conflict to the southeast. They remember all too well the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s, when many of their young men were sent to fight and die. Some fear the current crisis might spill over their border.

“We might get a lot of refugees here because of the attacks,” said Aina, an office worker in her 30s, who like most Turkmen gave only her first name because talking to foreign reporters is a risky business. “And among the refugees there might be people with weapons and they might try to take revenge on neighboring countries that have helped the Americans.”

But such fears may be overblown. The border regions are not heavily guarded, but the inhospitable desert terrain on both sides is a natural deterrent. Afghan refugees historically have headed for Iran or Pakistan, and since the current conflict began, Niyazov has made it clear that none are welcome in his nation.

Though Niyazov disdains Islamic militancy as much as other Central Asian leaders, he has maintained links with the Taliban. At the same time, he has allowed Afghanistan’s opposition Northern Alliance guerrillas to ship weapons across his territory from Iran.

Economically, Turkmenistan relies heavily on income from gas and oil resources but has failed to capitalize on its huge reserves. Its pipeline routes run through Russia, thus limiting exports to more lucrative Western markets. There have been numerous new pipeline projects announced during the past decade, but all have failed to materialize.

Niyazov has long eyed Afghanistan as a pipeline route that could be hugely profitable. Such a route could open up Indian and Chinese markets, as well as provide access to Pakistani ports. If some sort of stable state emerges in Afghanistan, Turkmenistan stands to gain.

But whatever the fate of his country’s wretched neighbor, Niyazov appears unconcerned about his destiny or that of his country--which, at least in public, are one and the same thing. War or no war, he has proclaimed that this will be a “golden century” for Turkmenistan.