Arafat in a Box

The Palestinian assassination of an Israeli Cabinet member is unprecedented, even in the sad history of Middle East violence. The killing threatens regional stability. It could also marginalize Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat unless he arrests the murderers and brings them to trial.

The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine claimed responsibility for Wednesday’s killing of Tourism Minister Rehavam Zeevi in a Jerusalem hotel. The group, a part of Arafat’s own Palestine Liberation Organization, said the shooting was in retaliation for Israel’s assassination in August of the Popular Front’s leader, Mustafa Zibri.

It should have been clear to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s government that killing Zibri would inflame the Palestinians. It should have been clear to the Palestinians that the killing of Zeevi could push Israel into more violent reprisals.

Israel has demanded the extradition of Zeevi’s killers; such a step has never been taken by the Palestinian Authority and indeed was rejected by Palestinian leaders Thursday. Many Palestinians hated the right-wing Zeevi, who wanted Arabs moved from the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The authority’s credibility has been eroded by its many broken vows to stop the fighting, now 13 months old, but if extradition is out of the question the authority must promise to bring the murderers to justice. Then it must do so.

The United Nations’ special Mideast envoy, after meeting with Arafat, rightly said the Palestinian leader’s denunciation of the Zeevi assassination was not enough, that the statement “has to be followed by deeds.” Arafat, who foolishly rejected proposals for Palestinian independence offered by then-Prime Minister Ehud Barak two years ago, now has to deal with greatly changed circumstances.

The Bush administration has become energetic in trying to persuade both Israelis and Palestinians to stop the mayhem, lest attacks on Muslims in Gaza and the West Bank increase the perception that the U.S. anti-terror campaign is anti-Muslim. But there are limits to what outsiders can do in the Middle East, especially after a Cabinet minister is slain.

Arafat does have a hard task in corralling Palestinian extremists. That said, leaders do what needs doing if they want to retain power and be credible. Arafat runs the risk of being pushed aside as a figure not worth dealing with. More than a year of renewed Palestinian violence against Israel has produced little but death. Arafat’s ability to rein in the killers of Israelis is in doubt. The Palestinian Authority police force did crack down on pro-Osama bin Laden demonstrations in Gaza, and Arafat had a good meeting in London with British Prime Minister Tony Blair. But the assassination of Zeevi threatens that progress and more.

Sharon faces Israeli cries for retaliation, and indeed there was a burst of violence Thursday, with deaths on both sides. Enforcing a cease-fire will be even more difficult now for all parties, but it is even more necessary. Continued retaliatory assassinations when global tensions are at their highest level in decades threaten to escalate into an all-out war that could easily explode beyond the region.