Mission Creep: That’s Good

President Bush campaigned on the claim that he was going to avoid the Clinton administration’s blunder of engaging in humanitarian interventions that bogged American troops down in places like the Balkans. His administration would focus on the big geopolitical questions like China and Russia, not wimpy peacekeeping missions that sapped the military. Thank goodness he hasn’t kept that promise.

The president has been rapidly backpedaling. First he visited the Balkans in late July and declared that the American presence was “vital” to maintaining the peace. Now his administration, despite initial reluctance, is becoming involved in Macedonia, to which it has sent a small contingent of troops as part of a NATO mission.

As Bush himself noted when he visited Kosovo, it’s in America’s national interest to ensure stability in Europe. The NATO troops are supposed to collect 3,300 weapons from ethnic Albanian rebels within 30 days, then leave. It won’t happen. Already the deadline of 30 days is looking iffy. British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw conceded the obvious when he said: “Nothing, particularly in the Balkans, is inevitable. If you’re asking me whether that NATO decision may change, it could change.”

Critics of foreign intervention will have conniptions over the mission creep that is taking place for NATO. But the real danger isn’t that the United States will become trapped in Macedonia but that it won’t be involved enough.

The surprising thing is how low the threat to American troops has been. Despite claims that the United States was risking a new Vietnam, there have been almost no NATO casualties in policing Bosnia and Kosovo. The current mission in Macedonia includes only 300 American troops, consisting of satellite intelligence, military transportation, medicine and communications specialists. So far, the Macedonia operation appears to be going smoothly. NATO’s military commander, Maj. Gen. Gunnar Lange, says that the first phase of the weapons collection program has been completed, with 1,400 handed over by ethnic Albanian rebels.

The Macedonian government fears, rightly, that the 3,300 weapons that NATO has said it will collect are not enough. The 60,000 weapons that the Macedonian government says the rebels are wielding may be an exaggeration, but 3,300 is low, and questions hover over what kinds of weapons the rebels are handing over. Springfield rifles, anyone?

Even if NATO declares the weapons hand-over a success, the crunch will come when the Macedonians and Albanian leaders confront implementing a political agreement that would give the Albanian minority greater representation and rights. Macedonia’s parliament has yet to approve such legislation. Bush administration officials say that there is an incentive for both sides to reach an agreement and that both sides know that NATO will leave should fighting erupt.

Perhaps a political accommodation will be reached. But the 30-day deadline, the tiny U.S. contingent and the intention of bailing out should the situation turn violent are not helpful. The irony is that the extremely restrictive nature of the mission could foster the very result that it is supposed to avoid, namely violence and warfare. The Bush administration should openly affirm its commitment to finishing the job in Macedonia.